Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 08:32:27 PM

Quote from: d5000 on September 20, 2015, 08:10:09 PM

Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 11:46:39 AM

Now you are obviously trying to backpedal this issue. You say that the longer the price stays at $230, the less chance it has to drop below $200. What is it if not predicting an unpredictable thing? Generally, it is irrelevant (how long it stays there), but in reality it works quite the other way round (as I said)...

I agree with the statement. We categorize objects and prices all the time. If Bitcoin stays on a price level, then we get used to this level. Obviously, the probability that a guess like this is true is low in a highly volatile market like Bitcoin's, but it grows while stability is growing.

Perhaps we do have now a probability of 10% to "not falling below 200" this year. In one month more Bitcoin staying at this price level it could increase to 12 or 13 %. (It's only a raw example, not a calculation I actually made).

You cannot calculate such probabilities (or otherwise measure them). And I'm not talking about any definite number like 10% or any other number for that matter. I mean any such methodology would be pretty much useless. Why? Because for such calculations to make any sense you should know the probability distribution, that is, a probability of each possible Bitcoin price, which you don't and can't know...

Unless you have a time machine indeed

My opinion is that you can get a rough idea of probabilities (not what will happen, but probabilities) based on past price behavior. Same with almost any other prices.

Probabilities like that can be calculated based on data.

But, Black Swans and other unpredictables will always confound that. Nonetheless, IMO it is worthwhile taking a look at past price behavior as ONE VARIABLE in making decisions to buy/sell BTC (and even gold).