Quote from: smooth on September 23, 2015, 02:12:05 AM

Interesting long-term economic charts here starting on page 25:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2015/speech797.pdf#page=31

The interest rate chart on page 31 lies to our eyes. The x-axis is non-linear and crams all the history before 1575 A.D. into a very small space, and the chart does not reflect the difference between maximum and minimum rates, nor reflect a weighting due to capital concentration.

Armstrong again exhibits that he has the most thorough and accurate databases of world history as follows. Armstrong's more accurate chart imparts a different conclusion, which is that interest rates are on an inexorable decline. I have related this to the empowerment of individual human knowledge and thus the reduction of importance of usury in the economy.

Below Armstrong related lower interest rates to greater confidence where capital can concentrate. Or let's put it another way, where capital doesn't have to fear return of capital. But either way, what is capital concentration? Capital concentration is an excess of savings w.r.t. to those activities which require financing. Again this is the advancing individual knowledge age where as production requires less fixed capital and more individually accessible knowledge creation and creativity, then finance concentrates in excess because the economy is very productive but at the same time needs less and less finance. So as I have pointed out, we are not only headed to the death of Western governments and the concomitant Industrial Age, but also the death of nomimal interest rate returns on monetary savings. Since productivity can increase significantly in the Knowledge Age over what we had in the Industrial Age because of the greater degrees-of-freedom which is potential energy (see how in the above linked PDF, productivity increased from 0.1 to 1% per annum upon the dawn of the Industrial Age), then savings will gain purchasing power without earning any interest. The era of loans is coming to end.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/a-brief-history-of-world-credit-interest-rates/3000-b-c-500-a-d-the-ancient-economy

Quote from: Martin Armstrong

A history of credit and interest reveals one major trend that has been consistent through all time. The stronger an economy the lower the rate of interest. Interest rates are always at their lowest level internationally when capital reaches its point of maximum concentration. This normally results in a strong currency and high levels of confidence in general.

Interest rates also remain substantially above world rates in nations where confidence is low. Currently, this is true for South and Central America as well as in most third world nations. This observation does not arise merely from the events of today. Even during the days of Babylon, we find the same variance in rates with the lowest rate dominant in the strongest economy, which was the center of the Babylonian Empire. However, interest rates were usually much higher in neighboring nations which at times were more than twice those in Babylon. As the decline of Babylon came about during the fourth and fifth centuries B.C., interest rates soared with minimum rates reaching around 40% on silver loans. During the sixth through ninth centuries B.C., silver loans in Assyria and Persia were often in the 40-50% range.