Quote from: smooth on September 27, 2015, 08:32:13 AM

Quote from: dmwardjr on September 27, 2015, 08:00:40 AM

I have my thoughts about price of bitcoin and difficulty, just as I'm sure you have your own

If you indeed think the difficulty is going to drop that certainly makes my assumptions pessimistic, so that is a fair point, although I'm still assuming zero cost for electricity, PSU, etc...

Thank you for your thoughts, you raised some interesting points.

No, I honestly don't think the difficulty will drop. It WILL rise. I'm only counting on the price of bitcoin to rise exponentially come spring time. It's counter intuitive for the big boys to get into a hash rate war at present price of bitcoin. It's more productive for them to replace old gear with new gear without raising the difficulty exponentially at the moment [In my opinion].

So yes, I expect the difficulty to go up to approximately 70 billion by December and 90 billion by spring next year. But I'm also expecting the price of bitcoin to rise with the difficulty, however, a delayed rise along with it. The price of bitcoin [Percentage wise] will not rise the same amount at the same time. There will be a delay in the rise of bitcoin price until the spring. I expect a significant rise in price in June [Just before the block halving]. If I don't see that significant rise in June, it's time for plan B or C. If we do have significant rise, it's probably time to sell the rigs on eBay at very close to the same price as what I paid for them. Why close to the same? Because BITMAIN will have the price of the S7 much higher at that point in time if the price of bitcoin is significantly higher in proportion to the difficulty.

It's just a gamble I'm making. I'm not going all out with my money. As I'm using money to invest in things other than bitcoin (E-Cigs). I'm only gambling with a portion of available funds. There are always risks in investments. Some more than others. Usually, more risk means more returns if it pans out. I always say, when gambling, "Never invest what you're not willing to lose and never invest more than 10% of your bankroll into a game." Also, "Never have all your eggs in one basket."

I would be willing to bet that BITMAIN and other big players will have a new rig waiting just for what I'm talking about with the rise in bitcoin price in June. It would be foolish for us to think they won't. That's where I believe the mining side of bitcoin will get very competitive for a while. That's when I believe will be the best time to sell my rigs or just before it. It depends on the price of bitcoin at the time.