Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit 
exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k
My bet (why not be bullish, right?):
We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.
This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).
By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?
I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame. I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull). So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.
Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.
Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0 + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187
So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!