Just want to explain better my thoughts about the bolded part: contrary of what you wrote I assume JD for BTC would be a better investing option because in the long run (I expect) profit will rise to reach EV .
Actually, Both options are the same. JD for BTC and JD for Clams both have a 1% edge. Just because one is underperforming, and one is overperforming has no impact on future performance. One can't say that because it is at 0.3%, that the site will have a >1.0% in the future. It still has 1% in the future.yes, it might rise up to get to the 1% total in the long run,
But that doenst mean that you as an investor will earn MORE than 1% of wagered in the long run.
Just because it is underperforming, doesnt mean that it'll quickly catch up.. wow this is really hard to explain.
I think that is like the classic gambler's fallacy
The profit should reach EV because the numbers get bigger, not because it's more likely to be "extra EV". The 1% HE is the same for both sites.
In comparison: gamblers say that when you have a coinflip, and after 1000 bets it's 40% tail, it's more likely to be "head" because it will get close to 50%. However, it will get close to 50% because the sample will become bigger, not because there is a bigger chance for any side to win - that's still 50%.