Quote from: NLNico on October 06, 2015, 07:11:12 AM

Quote from: a1choi on October 06, 2015, 07:10:09 AM

Quote from: hopenotlate on October 06, 2015, 07:05:26 AM

Just want to explain better my thoughts about the bolded part: contrary of what you wrote I assume JD for BTC would be a better investing option because in the long run (I expect) profit will rise to reach EV .

Actually, Both options are the same. JD for BTC and JD for Clams both have a 1% edge. Just because one is underperforming, and one is overperforming has no impact on future performance. One can't say that because it is at 0.3%, that the site will have a >1.0% in the future. It still has 1% in the future.

yes, it might rise up to get to the 1% total in the long run,

But that doenst mean that you as an investor will earn MORE than 1% of wagered in the long run.

Just because it is underperforming, doesnt mean that it'll quickly catch up.. wow this is really hard to explain.

I think that is like the classic gambler's fallacy Tongue

The profit should reach EV because the numbers get bigger, not because it's more likely to be "extra EV". The 1% HE is the same for both sites.

In comparison: gamblers say that when you have a coinflip, and after 1000 bets it's 40% tail, it's more likely to be "head" because it will get close to 50%. However, it will get close to 50% because the sample will become bigger, not because there is a bigger chance for any side to win - that's still 50%.

Ok fair enough. Completely agree with that.

What I mean is I want to be an investor and prefer starting from a site profit % smaller than EV percentage. Just because while number are getting bigger they are "working" to bring back the profit where it should be according to gaussian distribution.