Quote from: RoadTrain on October 28, 2015, 07:58:29 AM

Quote from: Biodom on October 28, 2015, 02:25:16 AM

Quote from: Luke-Jr on October 28, 2015, 02:21:32 AM

If luck were measured with ignorance to stale blocks (which they are not on Eligius), then it should average 100% over the long run (which may be several years). Once stale blocks are excluded, 100% long-term-average becomes impossible.

OK, what is the most realistic number after a year: 98, 99%?
Alternatively, is 92-94% after a year low or as expected?

Well, I guess 1-2% stale rates are reasonable over the long run. Though, Eligius has had too many of those during the last two weeks, add luck to that, and you'll see why the % is so low.

The good thing about Eligius is that it pays block fees towards the share log, which is a good sweetener Wink

At some point in the future, I guess, fees will be enough to compensate for orphan/stale blocks, and maybe more.

As mentioned, I investigate every stale block. Definitely might seem like there have been a few more than normal recently, but unfortunately nothing crazy. Mainly just Eligius and another pool finding a block at roughly the same time and sometimes winning, sometimes not.

After the next halving transaction fees are going to be a larger percentage of the block reward and I think this is going to make a bit of a difference. If transaction fees ever actually take off as a real source of income for miners then just putting them to the share log will have to be reevaluated, but for now there is no need since they don't quite offset stale blocks completely.

Transaction fees + NMC->BTC can be pretty close to covering that ~2% stale.

Quote from: Faceboss on October 28, 2015, 04:26:27 PM

Over the past two years with 25% off time I mined 98.02%.

Yep, that's about the same as the lifetime long term average. Additionally, the last I checked (not recently) other pools were roughly the same before their fees.