Quote from: zhangweiwu on November 04, 2015, 03:33:19 PM

My editor called my attention to the recent surge on bitcoin price. I am a bit out of touch since I moved away from China last year, but I'll share a few points of view - could be useful because I see things from a different angle.

There are surprisingly sparse information about this surge on the Chinese internet - a disconnected part of the Internet that the Chinese think is the Internet. I hope I could be of more use to my editor by my source of information from QQ groups, but my QQ account is suspended after I logged in from Australia a few times and the formality necessary to regain it looks painful to me. So I won't be able to write a news report - but there is something to be see from nothingness that I can speculate freely in forums. Observation about things that should happen (but didn't) reveals much information.

What didn't happen is the precursor good news. Foreign news like Nasdaq doesn't move sentiments here. BTCC's reënabling of bank deposite seems to be the only good news that can touch the ignorant nerves of Chinese gamblers. BTCC didn't make a fuzz about it - almost doing it quietly. For a tiny industry set back by government scrutiny, BTCC has no reason to make a fuzz about it before the government, play the fool and gets whipped ("see? I know what the emperor will do!"). The big question is "Do BTCC know something we don't, but didn't tell lest playing the all-knowing jester?" The opposite could be true as well - BTCC simply decide to do the act since the Lord has lost his interest - Zhou Xiaochuan (PBOC) has a lot to worry about and President Xi won't mind these small things. I explained before: "If Bitcoin remains small, it will be allowed to live". Now bitcoin is so weak, it's probably fine to test the Lord. Since BTCC won't tell, the truth is irrelevant to market price.

The other possible cause, MMM-China, I dismiss as unlikely. They still need to rewrite their propaganda in everyday Chinese. Besides, MMM-China attacks bankers, trying to inspire sympathy, while the Chinese don't hate bankers - bankers don't rule China; they obay the Party. Before MMM-China corrects the two problems, they can't win the heart of average Chinese. How ignorant, foreign cons and evangelists, I see from time to time, think that they can replicate their success in China as-is.

So what do I learn from the lack of information?

The future market is influnced by market sentiment and Chinese government reaction. The market sentiment we can't calculate - but I'll be succinct in stating the Chinese gamblers usually have a good appetite. The government reaction, on the other hand, is a lot easier to predict. It's going to be between inaction and "No", depends on whether a clear "no" degrades the government image to that of a micromanagement boss. Since it's all about image, or face value, or crowd control, it is inappropriate for the government to interfere if the people, the common crowd, are not yet influnced. There is a good indicator of "people gets influnced" - media coverage. So, we got a good precursor: no public media coverage of the Bitcoin frenzy, no government ban. Set Google keyword alert to be a public media coverage by a provincial level or well-known media and (market sentiment aside) it's safe to hold your coins until then (and a bit of time after, since the government works at its own pace).

I am not that ignorant to be pride of my ignorance of the latest developments in China - if you know some info, share it or message me, and I may change my take on things (and thank you as well).

A few words about myself:

I made a few good guesses in the past, including predicting Chinese government ban to bitcoin and the Chinese frenzy that leads to 1000USD, gained a bit fame. Then I migrated to Australia - not due to the uneventful Bitcoin development in China (which I predicted) but due to the dim future for a liberal mind under the regime of the new emperor. The bitcoin speculation won me some money, which eased my way to Australia, but didn't make it easy for me to blend in. For example, one of the reason Google here turns me down is that I lack International view - a rephrase of my interesting Chinese way of looking at things. Not many care about bitcoin here down under. In an effort to intermingle with Aussie startups I designed an Android public transit app - youtube link here) - it works everywhere in the world, so if that's what you need, help by testing it

Thanks. I appreciate the look into the 'averaged' mindset of Chinese traders / speculators. Might not be 'tradeable' information, sure, but if nothing else, it satisfies my curiosity about a country (and culture) that I know way too little about, unfortunately.