Quote from: mrb on October 25, 2012, 07:04:54 AM

Quote from: Transisto on October 25, 2012, 06:41:45 AM

That would be 200m$ worth of BFL hardware... Not going to happen, leaving quite a margin for less efficient device to cover their investments ... at some point.

Are you one of these guys who think that "640kB ought to be enough for anyone"?

If Bitcoin continue to succeed, it will come to a point where $200M will have been spent on mining hardware.
Just consider that today alone, $20M has been spent on CPU/GPU/FGPA mining hardware.
Going to $200M is only a 10x increase.

The 20m$ GPUs pay themselves in ~300 days with current profit/watts, while the 200m$ = ~~~20 years~~ (Edit: Actually never given reward halving)

The price would need to be of an average of 240$ during the next four year for hardware to pay for itself in the same duration.

In other word, very plausible given the imbalance in monetary distribution, Unfortunately my planing for a such a scenario is right next to my alien invasion preparedness folder.