Quote from: HarryKPeters on November 15, 2015, 09:02:55 PM

How can this be suprise? After 1 year of analysing i stopped following the analyze 'guru's' with their fibonacci etc.

It is manipulated > yes
Is that bad > no

With every price rise more and more people get into bitcoin. And now it is just about waiting...

If only 1 multinational will 'do' something with bitcoin others will follow and more people will adopt it. Hence the market will be supply & demand without big whales making the market.

I dunno, there are some pretty sharp cookies out there.....there is a dude called Brian Beamish for one, who has a very good track record of calling Bitcoin......but did I listen to him when the top was in? Did I listen to him when he suggested a retracement to the long term 61.8% Fib level before he would even consider going long Bitcoin again? Did I listen to him when he posted on twitter whether they were really going to take this back down to $300?

Nope!

Did I fuck. During the pump n dump, I went from being an early investor and early proft taker, to FOMO merchant, and watched substantial gains turn to substantial losses, and I was bag holding, and I was blocking out my anguish with copious doses of hopium, which was clouding mv outlook.

However, in Bitcoin especially, Fib retracements and Gann support/resitance lines really do seem to hold. Yesterday when I went net short, before being frightened back into market (at a loss) by this whale and his bullshit activity, I had first zone of resistance on the anticipated drop at $315. This was based on both Fib and Gann supports. If that doesn't hold, then it is back down to ~$280, where if we are in a bull market, support definitely will hold around this area. If we go there, we will likely get a puncture right through this support, before a strong rebound up to the $280 support level, which will hold. How to determine whether the market is more likely to go down to test support or go up to test resistance, is best determined using momentum indicators and gauging where the balance of probabilty lies. This is what I done, and decided that the balance of probability was a test of lower support levels, and it turns out I was right, except in between then and now, was that fucking whale on Bitstamp and my impulse reactionary response to what I thought was the market defying all expectation, and breaking up.

Go open up a BTC chart on Trading View. Go and look at any part of Bitcoins trading history, take significant highs and lows, and apply Fib and Gann to them. You may be astonished with how so many significant market turning points occur in the zones pin pointed by the Fib and Gann drawings.

As for right now, For a short term trader, Bitcoin is a no trade in my view. We have already had most of the downside momentum, but there is still room for more. For a long term investor, Bitcoin is still in a no buy zone for the same reasons. If it gets down to mid-upper $200s, then that is a definite buy, and will be where the pumpers and dumpers load up their lorries. For a stupid fucking bag holding, profit squandering, loss realising tosser like me, Bitcoin is a sit and hold and take the short term pain, cos in the long run, it is good until at least $750......although I will no doubt be back to trading soon enough, chopping and changing my mind at the least little quirk in the market, pissing $$$ all over the floor in my usual style.