Quote from: banzsolt on October 31, 2012, 04:35:18 PM

I made a small speculation, the only thing what I dont know the difficulty thing, is the difficulty depedning by the total hash power? (this is how I get it and calculated a bit)

So let's say after the ASIC's come out there will be a huge overhashing power in the network.
I estimated this at 50X so 50X ~28Thash/s (the total hash power at the moment) = 1,400 Thash/s =>

difficulty from 3, 000, 000 will be 50X this number so 150, 000, 000
so to jump to this difficulty we will need 1, 400- 28 = 1, 372 Thash power in the first day.
After this I devided this number in 60 Ghas so 1, 372, 000 / 60 ~ 22, 800 orders of a 60 Ghash/sec ASIC
like I saw there are just ~ 13, 000 orders so ~ 10 000 really offers that number is still the half of what I'm waiting for.

After this I putted this numbers in the TP calculator and got that at a 50X bigger difficulty time than now I can get my money back in 4 month. That's not bad if we think about that the difficulty will be rising exponentially and not linear (like I think because the curretn difficult rate will be much ower the power of the new Total hash power), so I can get the invested money still faster than Im waiting for.

So to sum up to get back the in 4 month the inveted money the avvarage of the tottal difficulty of the 4 month's difficulty should't be higher than 150, 000, 000.

Am I right? I would thank you very much if someone could correct me if I made somewhere a mistake, I couldn't mine ever, and now thinking to try it out, and wanting to buy a Little SC. What you think about this?

Reading this made my head hurt, but I'm sure your heart is in the right place.

I'm not really following your calculations, so I'll just jump to the end, 50x the current difficult is 165,217,800; we can round that to 150,000,000 for you. ASICs will not be released until after the coin halving, by everyones estimate, so each block yields 25 coins for our calculation. 60GHash/sec mining on 150,000,000 difficulty will generate 1 block roughly every 5 months or so, yielding 25 bitcoins. If in 5 months 25 bitcoins are worth $11 each, that is $275, or roughly 1/5ths of the cost of a Single SC. So you would be able to repay your Single SC in approximately 25 months (2 years 1 month) at that difficulty.

Hope that helped, even if it was rough calculation.