Quote from: Bogart on November 01, 2012, 03:48:46 AM

Quote from: hardcore-fs on November 01, 2012, 03:39:46 AM

Potentially a recipe for a manufacturing disaster.

Since there are 8 chips ALL relying on a SINGLE heatsink, a tiny variation in manufacturing could leave the chips at slightly different hights, resulting in chips that may not make contact with the bed of the heatsink, or worse!!, chips that are slightly higher and have the BGA connections compressed and fractured because they get compressed to be at the same hight as the surrounding devices.

Cairnsmore1 uses a similar design, cooling 4 chips (484-BGA I think) with a single heatsink/fan. Does it have these kind of problems?

[Speculation]

From the latest report it seems like BFL will be using their in-house pick and place to possibly populate the BGA's. When (another member) asked about this, they gave a very vague "either and neither". (Neither confirm nor deny)

It seems like scenario 2 is the valid scenario.

If the device isn't operated properly, it may very well cause irregularities in-house final assembly.

Assuming I am wrong and Scenario 1 is correct, the 25 days wait time is unrealistic (IMO).

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I have to commend Bogart for asking the right questions. He just needs to actively nail them down on a few points and the likelihood of the schedule can be weighed against those answers to his questions.

Bogart also asked how much volume BFL will ship other than the 1/3 answer. He wasn't given (IMO) a satisfactory answer....

[speculation warning!]
This is my personal view only:

First,
It looks to me like they want to "keep it a secret" that they may be turning to in-house assembly on the first batch. (probably for the sake of time)

Second,
It looks like they are hoping to distract customers to this possibility of waiting longer with (newly or yet to be released) technical specs on their design/ASIC chip type/process node. Like many have said, they are injected information and picture to keep them interested until the darn things ultimately ship.

Keeping the excitement and hopes up as a substitute for actual delivery. (IMO)

Don't be at all surprised if they are using 65nm and the "watt to GH/s" is better than 60watts. Say around 23 to 40 watts (@ 60Gh/s) . In the coming days it will be their only main selling point, hence why they push it so often over and over again. (IMO)

If I am right about this, feel free to donate to a charity of your choice.

Third, (Looks into his crystal ball)
They are unlikely to make their estimated deadline in 24 days and people (the smaller customers) will begin pulling out their money in droves as Christmas approaches. The wise will have pulled their money out safely. The (IMO)unwise will hold on (on loyalty/hope/various reasoning) until they get an actual delivery sometime in late December and onward until February.

I suppose at that point rumors that BFL is in the red will escalate and people will be afraid to pull their money out for fear of imploding the company financially. Possibly losing their money and the product. These are the people whom are likely to eventually get their product if enough of the remaining customers stay (better late than never, all IMO).

If they do resort to in-house assembly (ASIC placement) to save time, my crystal ball says there may be noticeable defects as February and March roll on. I don't think BFL has bad hardware. I just think they are trying to meet a timed schedule that perhaps will put regular quality control processes at "the blink of an eye" rather than slowly working out bugs. This is (as admitted) the problem of going full custom. Issues are likely to crop up and it takes more time (with a better result). Cutting corners for the sake of time may lead to quality issues etc.

Fourth,
I think people will be disappointed that their unrealistic expectations are not met and leads to a pressuring of the company to produce their products faster than ever before. This will likely lead to consistency issues between batches. (IMO= In my opinion).

Fifth,
I think people will be unhappy when (or if) BFL cannot produce 6,000 units from their first/initial shipment within 1 month and that order numbers will be fulfilled at a slower than expected rate. (Correct me if I am wrong, but the 1/3 plan only applied to the first month of established pre-orders...not to every order after the first month.)

That will likely cause a second rush of refunds if people realize that even though the company has begun shipping...their order is a ways off. Possibly with loyal customers openly pleading with people that they will sink the company or leave the other customers potentially high and dry (without refunds) if a second refund round happens.

The biggest warning signs will be if and/or when the largest Mini-rig customers begin to pull out. I think the Mini-Rig customers will see the whole thing in a different light than those whom have only invested a few thousand.

I don't imagine these larger customers want to be known for various reasons and are unlikely to post on the forums. They are likely to be low-key and when or if they ask for refunds, it is unlikely the community will know it happened. Which means the invisible customers won't be noticed if they exit the pre-ordering process. I also think they will hold out until there is no reason to stay.

I don't see (in my crystal ball) these larger customers being willing to leave BFL unless their money is put at risk by too many small refunds being issued. I think they understand that they will be very profitable regardless of when BFL ships. Their main concern (my crystal ball tells me) is the company remains solvent until they receive their delivery.

While smaller customers care about "marginal" profitability in comparison to these larger orders. I estimate their mentality should be very different.

[This has been a work of an imaginative mind +- a crystal ball. This is posted only as speculation and a conveyance of one individuals views on a murky situation.)