Quote from: dooglus on November 17, 2012, 12:32:41 AM

Also, I ran my simulator on 1 million plays, and show the average payout over each 10k plays. It seems to suggest the true house edge is more like 4.25%:

Code:

average return over 10000 spins is 0.982250
average return over 20000 spins is 0.971225; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.960200
average return over 30000 spins is 0.972617; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.975400
average return over 40000 spins is 0.967612; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.952600
average return over 50000 spins is 0.968010; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.969600
average return over 60000 spins is 0.965833; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.954950
average return over 70000 spins is 0.963571; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.950000
average return over 80000 spins is 0.960931; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.942450
average return over 90000 spins is 0.960939; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.961000
average return over 100000 spins is 0.960825; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.959800
average return over 110000 spins is 0.959377; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.944900
average return over 120000 spins is 0.958413; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.947800
average return over 130000 spins is 0.958342; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.957500
average return over 140000 spins is 0.959057; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.968350
average return over 150000 spins is 0.958917; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.956950
average return over 160000 spins is 0.959762; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.972450
average return over 170000 spins is 0.960424; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.971000
average return over 180000 spins is 0.960592; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.963450
average return over 190000 spins is 0.960305; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.955150
average return over 200000 spins is 0.959715; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.948500
average return over 210000 spins is 0.960100; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.967800
average return over 220000 spins is 0.960327; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.965100
average return over 230000 spins is 0.960565; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.965800
average return over 240000 spins is 0.960127; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.950050
average return over 250000 spins is 0.959996; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.956850
average return over 260000 spins is 0.959887; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.957150
average return over 270000 spins is 0.959263; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.943050
average return over 280000 spins is 0.959348; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.961650
average return over 290000 spins is 0.959778; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.971800
average return over 300000 spins is 0.959428; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.949300
average return over 310000 spins is 0.959876; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.973300
average return over 320000 spins is 0.959642; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.952400
average return over 330000 spins is 0.959198; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.945000
average return over 340000 spins is 0.959329; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.963650
average return over 350000 spins is 0.959156; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.953250
average return over 360000 spins is 0.958596; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.939000
average return over 370000 spins is 0.958392; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.951050
average return over 380000 spins is 0.958522; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.963350
average return over 390000 spins is 0.958156; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.944250
average return over 400000 spins is 0.957544; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.933650
average return over 410000 spins is 0.957546; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.957650
average return over 420000 spins is 0.957874; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.971300
average return over 430000 spins is 0.958094; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.967350
average return over 440000 spins is 0.958113; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.958900
average return over 450000 spins is 0.958157; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.960100
average return over 460000 spins is 0.957914; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.947000
average return over 470000 spins is 0.957834; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.954150
average return over 480000 spins is 0.957831; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.957700
average return over 490000 spins is 0.957845; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.958500
average return over 500000 spins is 0.958034; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.967300
average return over 510000 spins is 0.958103; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.961550
average return over 520000 spins is 0.957910; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.948050
average return over 530000 spins is 0.958014; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.963450
average return over 540000 spins is 0.958069; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.960950
average return over 550000 spins is 0.958285; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.970000
average return over 560000 spins is 0.957993; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.941900
average return over 570000 spins is 0.957975; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.956950
average return over 580000 spins is 0.958003; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.959600
average return over 590000 spins is 0.958335; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.977600
average return over 600000 spins is 0.958202; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.950400
average return over 610000 spins is 0.958202; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.958150
average return over 620000 spins is 0.958641; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.985450
average return over 630000 spins is 0.958611; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.956750
average return over 640000 spins is 0.958415; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.946050
average return over 650000 spins is 0.958482; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.962800
average return over 660000 spins is 0.958675; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.971200
average return over 670000 spins is 0.958600; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.953650
average return over 680000 spins is 0.958597; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.958400
average return over 690000 spins is 0.958434; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.947350
average return over 700000 spins is 0.958416; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.957150
average return over 710000 spins is 0.958258; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.947200
average return over 720000 spins is 0.958257; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.958200
average return over 730000 spins is 0.958037; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.942200
average return over 740000 spins is 0.958268; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.975100
average return over 750000 spins is 0.958549; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.979400
average return over 760000 spins is 0.958555; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.959000
average return over 770000 spins is 0.958670; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.967400
average return over 780000 spins is 0.958659; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.957800
average return over 790000 spins is 0.958528; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.948300
average return over 800000 spins is 0.958378; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.946550
average return over 810000 spins is 0.958323; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.953900
average return over 820000 spins is 0.958302; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.956650
average return over 830000 spins is 0.958460; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.971400
average return over 840000 spins is 0.958351; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.949300
average return over 850000 spins is 0.958142; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.940600
average return over 860000 spins is 0.957822; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.930600
average return over 870000 spins is 0.957674; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.944950
average return over 880000 spins is 0.957515; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.943700
average return over 890000 spins is 0.957448; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.951500
average return over 900000 spins is 0.957381; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.951450
average return over 910000 spins is 0.957069; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.929000
average return over 920000 spins is 0.957115; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.961300
average return over 930000 spins is 0.957189; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.964000
average return over 940000 spins is 0.957286; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.966300
average return over 950000 spins is 0.957279; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.956600
average return over 960000 spins is 0.957481; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.976650
average return over 970000 spins is 0.957582; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.967300
average return over 980000 spins is 0.957528; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.952300
average return over 990000 spins is 0.957527; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.957450
average return over 1000000 spins is 0.957537; average return over last 10000 spins is 0.958500

Nice analysis! I do plan on lowering the house edge. 4% seems too high relative to other games. I will post to this thread when completed. I might add a special slice on the wheel that is a mega-jackpot (10x or 20x). That will give me an easy parameter to tweak in order to adjust the expected value.

Sanjay