Quote from: THX 1138 on January 04, 2016, 08:30:50 PM

Today from Armstrong - "Is The Recession Starting?"

Right at the end he says: "...The ultimate rise in stocks in the years ahead (after a correction sling-shot move) will unfold simply as capital tries to secure its future by getting out of government bonds and banks." http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/41421

So, after looking at an earlier post of his from 19th December, I guess we can presume it's the latter scenario below?

"...There are only TWO possibilities which will be determined from the closings. Either we see a 2017 high in a Phase Transition now, which typically will not last beyond 13 months, or we continue to base into 2017 and then we completely invert meaning the high is pushed off into 2019/2020 with the bottom of the ECM." http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40638

Anyone got any further input?

THX 1138

Left somewhat unsaid by Armstrong is whether or not there are some things "that are different this time". Maybe that's why he does not make hard & fast predictions, there my be new factors nowadays that are not in his model...

If I had to guess, I would agree with Armstrong (and some other observers), at least for 2016: that the US$ will be strong for a while as people all over the world flee somewhat to put their money here. Stocks? Wow, I don't know, fundamentals seem to be kind of bad. Now does not seem to be a good time to own capital assets (like chip factories or railroads). Later on might be a different story as the economy recovers... IF it recovers...

I also think that a DEFLATION is more likely in the short-term than inflation or hyperinflation (which would occur after a deflation).