Quote from: THX 1138 on January 05, 2016, 07:56:36 PM

Quote from: OROBTC on January 04, 2016, 10:08:13 PM

THX 1138

Left somewhat unsaid by Armstrong is whether or not there are some things "that are different this time". Maybe that's why he does not make hard & fast predictions, there my be new factors nowadays that are not in his model...

Yes; as for instance with bitcoin, for which he currently has too little data to incorporate into the ECM.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 04, 2016, 10:08:13 PM

If I had to guess, I would agree with Armstrong (and some other observers), at least for 2016: that the US$ will be strong for a while as people all over the world flee somewhat to put their money here. Stocks? Wow, I don't know, fundamentals seem to be kind of bad. Now does not seem to be a good time to own capital assets (like chip factories or railroads). Later on might be a different story as the economy recovers... IF it recovers...

You mention Armstrong and other observers who you follow. I think it's a wise move to have a kind of venn diagram of varying viewpoints regarding economics, and perhaps concentrating investments within the intersection area, and smaller amounts to the more progressive or "out there" opinions. For me, I've used MA's dates on gold moves to my advantage over the last year or two - since I learned not to ignore them! I'm currently out and waiting for the low. Yeah, I would be selling assets now. But it would seem the mega-wealthy are parking their cash in assets, even though they must know they will depreciate come the next bout of financial turmoil. But I imagine they reason that it is better to hold some of what they once owned rather than nothing - or at least next to nothing, which the rest of us are staring in the face.

Quote from: OROBTC on January 04, 2016, 10:08:13 PM

I also think that a DEFLATION is more likely in the short-term than inflation or hyperinflation (which would occur after a deflation).

I believe both MA and our TPTB would go along with that view.

Quote from: John999 on January 05, 2016, 10:37:32 AM

Seriously people still follow Martin Armstrong? Good for you, 2015.75, debt big bang and so on Grin

2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05.

A couple of quotes from Tom Campbell, author of My Big T.O.E. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_W._Campbell

Open-minded skepticism is the primary tool you will need to maintain a free mind capable of significant and evolutionary progress.

In short, Believe Nothing, Explore Everything, Know what you Know. Know More."

Sure, people will remember this date for centuries to come... Roll Eyes