Quote from: kokojie on November 19, 2012, 03:42:13 PM

I can tell you right now that btc price will not double overnight, the decrease in inflation rate is tiny compared to 10m+ coins outstanding.

The bitcoin price is determined by the flow of people selling coins versus the flow of people buying coins. The amount of coins issued can effect this flow, but the number of coins minted certain has an effect. There's only 61K bitcoins between the current price and $14. With 3600 coins no longer being minted each day, this should tilt the flow to eat through that in a few weeks.

This is speculative though because we don't know how many of the minted coins actually go to markets now and how many are squirreled away and saved. And then after the halving, with miners save the same amount by percentage, or will they sell off the same amount nominally and thus have a lower saving percentage. For example, starting with saving at 80% and selling at 20%, this goes to saving 60% selling 40%, which is still 10 bitcoins per block being sold, just less being saved relatively.