Quote from: altcoinUK on January 17, 2016, 06:22:58 PM

Quote from: darlidada on January 17, 2016, 06:50:17 AM

Anyone already shorting bitcoin in prevision of the spring low that anonymint predicted?

Stop this absurdity please. He did have predicted nothing else but wrong figures and trends.

I am the most vocal cheerleader of the TPTB_need_war fanboy club, he is the best in the BCT forum on information technology related topics, he is an exceptionally smart and knowledgeable man, but his Bitcoin price prediction is a complete nonsense. I point it out why and you could read it at

Quote from: altcoinUK on November 04, 2015, 12:01:33 PM

With regards to the price ...

but shortly, he has predicted the top cannot exceed $325, and then it must and will crash to $150 or even double digits. Instead of crashing to double digits the BTC market has been trading 30%-50% above his ceiling for a while. I am not sure why he started to spread his BS of "as I predicted the BTC price of $150 for this spring", because everyone can read what he has predicted.

As for Armstrong, I am the most vocal cheerleader of the Armstrong's fanboy club as well, and I have nothing but respect with regards to his analytical skill that puts current market events in historical context and that - in my opinion - allows him to draw logical conclusions about long market trends, plus it was quite impressive how he could predict the Russian crisis in 1997-98 by analysing the global capital flow, but I have to admit sloanf has made several valid points about Armstrong.
The bottom line is: nobody can predict the next day, but not even the next week market. Even sensible individuals like Caldaro or Avi Gilburt predict completely wrong short and medium term market price. (right now Caldaro says that he has never seen such market reaction, it is very unusual how the market behaves that's why he couldn't predict the current dip .. . no shit .. the market behave unpredictably).

It seems Armstrong's long term prediction about the capital inflow to the US equity market makes lots of sense and it seems logical, but he is unable to predict short term trends, and to be fair he is not even trying to do it lately. His most useful short term market tip was when he said 3 months ago that the volatility will be too high and it is not possible to trade on this market. Many of us translated this to a long straddle trade and it was a profitable strategy, but to be fair to Armstrong's critics, after the August lows and during the earning seasons combined with the FED rate raise the volatility was not a surprise, so by stating that the market will be volatile Armstrong was stating the obvious.

That's pretty much my view as well. NO ONE bats 1.000, no one gets future predictions even 90% correctly. Predicting the future is very hard, especially in with complex systems like the economy and finance.

Longer term trends are sometimes easier to predict because there are some critical factors that sometimes can be identified that many miss...

Armstrong's great value to me are his ideas! Same with "our" TPTB. Whether specific short-term predictions come true a high-percentage of the time is not important. Longer term is what IS important.