+1 nice post, full of actual facts.. Seems to validate my take on him aswell. Rei is def way higher here, and i know inflation didnt rise that much to offset the boom around the states, so 2007 wasnt the peak.
yes, nice post. food for thought.
no one will ever be 100% correct, especially across every asset class, which seems to be the standard he is judged against. But MA has at least a track record of making some big correct calls (87, 89, 98). These aren't in dispute.
His REI call
was also correct - that day (Feb 9 2007) was the S&P REIT high and it wasnt until Jan 2015 that it was equalled (NOT adjusted for inflation). Has gone back down since then. MA's model predicted an upswing from 20011 till 2015.75 in the RE model and that has been accurate, but what is unavoidable is that house
prices in many big cities have blown through 2008 levels: London, Manhattan, Vancouver, Sydney etc. Taking his graph literally, 2015 wasn't supposed to eclipse 2007 and in regards to the S&P REIT it didn't, but prices sure have in those places (and they have also come down slightly since then - London, Manhattan, Canada, Australia).
I think there is something to MA's modelling. The overall trend seems to be near enough on point, and I read many prominent people in economics etc having similar opinions on many calls over the last year or so (eg USD, sovereign debt). If MA has been showing this trend coming for 20 years (assuming his copyright on models is as stated), thats worthy of some interest.
I also vaguely remember seeing MA admit to a wrong call on a video somewhere. iirc he was talking about a low in Japan in 1994 but was saying that the actions of the government delayed / manipulated it. cant remember where I saw it.