Quote from: tabnloz on January 18, 2016, 02:41:32 AM

His REI call was also correct - that day (Feb 9 2007) was the S&P REIT high and it wasnt until Jan 2015 that it was equalled (NOT adjusted for inflation). Has gone back down since then. MA's model predicted an upswing from 20011 till 2015.75 in the RE model and that has been accurate, but what is unavoidable is that house prices in many big cities have blown through 2008 levels: London, Manhattan, Vancouver, Sydney etc. Taking his graph literally, 2015 wasn't supposed to eclipse 2007 and in regards to the S&P REIT it didn't, but prices sure have in those places (and they have also come down slightly since then - London, Manhattan, Canada, Australia).

I think there is something to MA's modelling. The overall trend seems to be near enough on point, and I read many prominent people in economics etc having similar opinions on many calls over the last year or so (eg USD, sovereign debt). If MA has been showing this trend coming for 20 years (assuming his copyright on models is as stated), thats worthy of some interest.

Lets take a look at this picture again http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/realestate-cycle.jpg Since 1955, from which the graph begins, to 1979, when it was first created (claimed to be created, to be precise), there must have been some metric MA used to measure real estate dynamics, right? And it wasnt the S&P Reit index, because there was no S&P Reit index back then, ok? So you cant use it or any other metric that was developed later to argue that the forecast is correct. But even the S&P Reit says that real estate exceeded 2007 high. Regardless of anything, again, check whats going on in all major cities across the globe and every dog on the street will tell you that real estate is way higher than it was in 2007.

As for 1987, 1989 and other ecm predictions http://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u695/armstrong-economic-confidence-model.jpg, lets not fall for that bs, ok? He did not predict any of those events. He just stated those dates based on 8.6 years without any specifics. And if something did happen on or around those dates he came out and claimed that he predicted precisely that event. For example, MA did not predict the crash of 1987. The Dow bottomed on Oct20 which is accidently happened on 1987.8. The decline itself started earlier on Aug25. And only after the crash MA jumped in and claimed his forecast. Another interesting thing is that his model shows that it should have been the peak, not the bottom.

Further to that, here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/historical-turning-points-economic-confidence-model-6000bc-2072ad he put thousands of points so naturally something happened on or around some dates. But it clear that in absolute majority of cases nothing happened at all, just like in 2015.75, which MA had been preaching for years as Big Bang. But let me remind you, he predicted http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35652 the US government shutdown, government debt collapse and so much else. Of course, nothing of that happened. In fact, nothing happened at all. So in the absence of anything significant, he, in order to cover his ass, used the fact that Putin sent a couple of planes to Syria as the major Big Bang event. What a pathetic charlatan!

Also, MA says that every 51-year wave is followed by deflation http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/55/64/39/201306/phpukRPHF, i.e. after 1929, 1981, 2033, etc. The reality is that deflation started after 1921, briefly paused and then restarted after 1926. There was no deflation after 1981 - there was high inflation instead. And now we are almost in a deflation mode but his deeply flawed model says we should get deflation no earlier than 2033. And if we go back earlier than 1929 well easily find even more flaws in all his bs theory.

And just for those who are still delusional and cannot figure out what is what by themselves, check http://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/17/business/international-business-japanese-regulators-get-a-2d-scalp-under-their-belts.html what NYT had to say about MA back then. a show-boating investment manager who was well known among Japanese corporate investors for his persuasive sales pitches. Notice, they dont call him a great programmer, forecaster, guru, economist, financier, trader, hedge fund manager, historian, scientist or anything else but a show-boating salesman. Because thats what he was and has always been ever since the times he could not get into college. A salesman that pitches bs, for you can't teach an old dog new tricks. And every sensible man now knows it.