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Lets take a look at this picture again http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/08/realestate-cycle.jpg Since 1955, from which the graph begins, to 1979, when it was first created (claimed to be created, to be precise), there must have been some metric MA used to measure real estate dynamics, right? And it wasnt the S&P Reit index, because there was no S&P Reit index back then, ok? So you cant use it or any other metric that was developed later to argue that the forecast is correct. But even the S&P Reit says that real estate exceeded 2007 high. Regardless of anything, again, check whats going on in all major cities across the globe and every dog on the street will tell you that real estate is way higher than it was in 2007.

Fair enough, there was no REIT and therefore it can't be his metric, but surely you must be able to accept that in Feb 7 / 2007, on the turning point of his ECM, the S&P REIT reached its high (335.86). It has only roughly equalled that in Jan 23 / 2015 (330.00), and that is not adjusting for inflation. Here is the link

http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-united-states-reit-us-dollar

I can agree that this may not be the best metric to judge, but think of the probability of someone predicting a top in RE years in advance on that date, and the turning point actually occurring is pretty small.

The press called it Armstrong's Revenge.

"Martin Armstrong's revenge - I could not think of a more appropriate title to characterize this write-up because whether by chance or not, the stock market did turn south with a vengeance right on the exact turn-day identified by his model. Of course the real neat part of the whole enchilada is the fact his model predicted this turn all the way back in 1999."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/7078/martin-armstrongs-revenge

Now, this may not be the best source, but then again, you used the NYT so I guess it doesn't matter.

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As for 1987, 1989 and other ecm predictions http://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u695/armstrong-economic-confidence-model.jpg, lets not fall for that bs, ok? He did not predict any of those events. He just stated those dates based on 8.6 years without any specifics. And if something did happen on or around those dates he came out and claimed that he predicted precisely that event. For example, MA did not predict the crash of 1987. The Dow bottomed on Oct20 which is accidently happened on 1987.8. The decline itself started earlier on Aug25. And only after the crash MA jumped in and claimed his forecast. Another interesting thing is that his model shows that it should have been the peak, not the bottom.

MA predicted an event to occur on the ECM turning point in 1987, which it did. One of the biggest drops in history. If he gave the date without context, then fine, accepted. But this says there is something to the 8.6 / pi model. I read an article where he said that 87 was the first time he actually believed in the model. I can't find articles of him saying the date but here's Barron's.

"Armstrong is the developer of the Armstrong Economic Confidence Model, best known for calling the crash of 1987 to the very day. The model pegged June 13-June 14, 2011, as the start of a long-term upward trend in the market; the market obliged by notching its first weekly rise since April 29"

http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111904548404576397780966386382

So those are two dates, to the day, that he has correctly predicted an event to occur on. In 07 he said RE and the REIT hit its high. In 87 I'm assuming he was talking Dow and it plunged.

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Further to that, here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/historical-turning-points-economic-confidence-model-6000bc-2072ad he put thousands of points so naturally something happened on or around some dates. But it clear that in absolute majority of cases nothing happened at all, just like in 2015.75, which MA had been preaching for years as Big Bang. But let me remind you, he predicted http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35652 the US government shutdown, government debt collapse and so much else. Of course, nothing of that happened. In fact, nothing happened at all. So in the absence of anything significant, he, in order to cover his ass, used the fact that Putin sent a couple of planes to Syria as the major Big Bang event. What a pathetic charlatan!

OK, this is plausible. Maybe he retrofits it, who's to say? I don't think you can say every derivative of 8.6 will see a major event (4.3, 2.15 etc) but, I don't think you can dismiss the model either.

Now on your point of MA never admitting he is wrong - here is his reasoning on Does The Model Ever Change Its Mind?

"The answer to this question is yes and no. There are two entirely separate forecasts TIME and PRICE. There are three markers in price with respect to the Dow 18500, 23000, and then 40000. The earliest time frame was 2016. There is no guarantee that we will see the 40000 level. This is why we have to follow the numbers. It is always a IF THEN ELSE issue for both TIME and PRICE must agree. If we reach the end of the cycle and it has only reached 23000, then that is it. If we exceed the 23000 level PRIOR to the end of the cycle, then the 40000 target becomes possible."

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Also, MA says that every 51-year wave is followed by deflation http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/55/64/39/201306/phpukRPHF, i.e. after 1929, 1981, 2033, etc. The reality is that deflation started after 1921, briefly paused and then restarted after 1926. There was no deflation after 1981 - there was high inflation instead. And now we are almost in a deflation mode but his deeply flawed model says we should get deflation no earlier than 2033. And if we go back earlier than 1929 well easily find even more flaws in all his bs theory.

Haven't looked, you may be right. But I noticed his 51.6 yr up & down RE cycle roughly correlates to actual RE price movements.

http://moneyweek.com/is-the-uk-property-market-facing-an-18-year-slump/

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And just for those who are still delusional and cannot figure out what is what by themselves, check http://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/17/business/international-business-japanese-regulators-get-a-2d-scalp-under-their-belts.html what NYT had to say about MA back then. a show-boating investment manager who was well known among Japanese corporate investors for his persuasive sales pitches. Notice, they dont call him a great programmer, forecaster, guru, economist, financier, trader, hedge fund manager, historian, scientist or anything else but a show-boating salesman. Because thats what he was and has always been ever since the times he could not get into college. A salesman that pitches bs, for you can't teach an old dog new tricks. And every sensible man now knows it.

No doubt he's can showboat. He ran a multi billion dollar hedge fund, was awarded trader of the year etc etc and was the toast of Japan after the 89 top. I'd have a bit of showboat too.

Now, on to the NYT. This is the publication that trumpeted the Iraq war / WMD's, is well known as a govt mouthpiece and just dumped on bitcoin, so their standing as an independent publication has dropped like a stone in the last decade. And of course, this is just a writers opinions.

But anyway, good posts, I can't say with certainty that MA isnt a fraud but I don't believe so. To me, at the least, there's something to his cycles. Doesn't cost me anything - I'm only an interested observer. Don't take MA's predictions so personally.