Quote from: tabnloz on January 19, 2016, 11:53:31 AM

I can agree that this may not be the best metric to judge, but think of the probability of someone predicting a top in RE years in advance on that date, and the turning point actually occurring is pretty small.

I already explained how he makes such calls and decomposed his pattern here:

Quote from: sloanf on January 17, 2016, 04:21:19 PM

Finally, let me add to the summary I have made in the previous post about his cheats and tricks. Throughout all these years he uses the same pattern of predictions:
1.   Pick an asset
2.   Multiply its price by 8-10
3.   Pick a date which is next or second-next in his deeply flawed 3.14 model

Examples abound: Oil $10 to 100 (10 times) by the next 3.14 date 2007.15, the Dow 3.5K to 35K (10 times) by next 3.14 date 2015.75, gold 500 or 1200 to 5000 or 12000 (by 10 times) by the next 3.14 date 2015.75, etc. If it does not work, he just shifts the date (which he did twice already with the Dow) or flip flops (like he did with gold or with oil ). Simple.

but let me add something new to that especially since you brought up this

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If he gave the date without context, then fine, accepted. But this says there is something to the 8.6 / pi model.

because its really revealing. In reality, pi, 8,6\4.3\2.14 etc dont matter at all. Those are just numbers. Pick any number, say 7.2 or 11.7 or whatever, and run the same series in excel like MA did here http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/historical-turning-points-economic-confidence-model-6000bc-2072ad. Try playing with the result (changing turning points, i.e. dividing the initial number by 3,4,5 etc, and then testing those turning points on various markets). You will get the same or even higher probability of significant dates. I suspect MA picked 3.14 because its easy to explain to gullible crowds because 3.14 looks credible so he could sell it easily without any suspicion and monetize his made-up theory.

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I read an article where he said that 87 was the first time he actually believed in the model. I can't find articles of him saying the date but here's Barron's.

"Armstrong is the developer of the Armstrong Economic Confidence Model, best known for calling the crash of 1987 to the very day.

No, MA is best known for cheating Japanese investors and spending 11 years in jail for that. Ask google what he is best known for and youll see.

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So those are two dates, to the day, that he has correctly predicted an event to occur on. In 07 he said RE and the REIT hit its high. In 87 I'm assuming he was talking Dow and it plunged.

No, he was not talking about the Dow. For if he was, he would have made a lot of money and he didnt. The only time he predicted a specific event was 2015.75. And I dont have to tell you how it all played out.

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Now on your point of MA never admitting he is wrong - here is his reasoning on Does The Model Ever Change Its Mind?

I would have to agree he did admit he was wrong only once. That was when he pleaded guilty in 2006 to conspiracy for lying to investors about his trading record and the value of assets he held.
As for this

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"The answer to this question is yes and no. There are two entirely separate forecasts TIME and PRICE. There are three markers in price with respect to the Dow 18500, 23000

This appeared as a backup option to cover his ass and only after it was getting more and more evident that he would likely to miss his call again. Check the original version since the very start of this forecast there was no backup.

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No doubt he's can showboat. He ran a multi billion dollar hedge fund, was awarded trader of the year etc etc and was the toast of Japan after the 89 top. I'd have a bit of showboat too.

Dont take those bs awards too seriously, will you? Its just one of countless occasions for amateurs with no fact-checking. Just like the recent one http://www.financemagnates.com/forex/products/the-man-who-predicted-snb-fxstreet-names-forex-person-of-the-year/. They did not even bother to check this http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/25888, which was written just a couple of weeks before the chf-break.

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Now, on to the NYT. This is the publication that trumpeted the Iraq war / WMD's, is well known as a govt mouthpiece and just dumped on bitcoin, so their standing as an independent publication has dropped like a stone in the last decade. And of course, this is just a writers opinions.

This wasnt just a writers opinions. The articles says it was Japanese investors opinion. But that aside, I brought the article not to claim that NYT or other media is credible that wasnt the point. The point was to show you what people had to say of MA back then. And it is the only article of 1999 (when MA was charged) I found in public access.