I just checked his bet history. He made almost all his profit from a single bet:
https://www.moneypot.com/bets/18530298The payout table was set to:
121 47 13 5 3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 3 5 13 47 121
and he hit the 121x
He bet 400k bits and so made a profit of 48 BTC.
When I set up the payout table like that myself it tells me the max bet is around 9k bits, so I don't understand why this bet was allowed to go ahead.
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This is in agreement with the moneypot FAQ, which says:
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I never looked in detail at how the kelly criterion works when there are
multiple mutually exclusive outcomes like in the case of plinko bets; maybe it says we should risk this much. Could someone look into it and see?
That is really interesting...nice work dooglus. I'm assuming the max bet would be lower now after such a huge loss, but it wouldn't have dropped from 400k to 9k on that line.