For one thing, you're approaching this from a purely TA standpoint. Bitcoin isn't forex, it doesn't have the insane stabilities of countries behind it. A few people (or china in some cases) can move the market a lot, sending it into a panic.
Mostly recently I've been short both because of the continuing trend, and because of all the drama going on with the blocksize as well as Mike Hearn Leaving. The drama has been a perfect opportunity for the whales to create false panic and cause some price crashes, letting them buy up cheap coins for a while before we end up going up sometime in the near-future.
You're right that my TA isn't exactly world-class, but there's more than pure TA when it comes to trading crypto. It's the ability to use a combination of it to find good times to trade and using the current clusterfucks to your advantage.
I would tend to agree with you on the fact that Bitcoin is a highly cornered market, which can be pushed this way and that by the actions of very few people, and not least of all by the exchanges themselves.
I also agree that the crash based on Mike Hearn leaving, had a lot more to do with whales capitalising on a perceived bearish fundamental, than any spontaenous mass movement of BTC holders rushing to get out. i.e. Had the whales decided to pump on that day, same panic sellers would have panic bought, and Mike Hearn story would be repsun as bullish fundamental.
However....we already crashed down to $350, and spent a long time testing and holding (despite your 'breaches' chart) a rather significant trendline. Even if trend was bearish (and actually 1Hr, and 4hr MAs crossed as bullish), Markets don't move in straight lines, they zig, and they zag. Had that breakout (the 'zig') been anything other than a totally engineered move to wipe out Short Stops up above, then Bitcoin would have been due a zag. 9/10 times, BTC would have 'zagged' after such a break out move, as would any market...but not on this occassion cos their was a whole bunch of Long Stops to wipe out.
I would imagine however, that there is another good argument to justify your conintued bearish stance, namely, liquidity exiting Bitcoin. There has just been millions of USD worth of Short and Long wipe outs. Thursday, all the bears got their asses handed to them, then Friday night, exact same thing gets done to the bulls. Noob traders and seasoned pros alike, will be sitting rubbing thier eyes in disbelief at BTC at the moment. A whole of capital is going to start slowly walking away from Bítcoin and into other things.....
......I doubt I am the only one who is off the mind to pull their funds out of the BTC exchanges in response to the blatantly fabricated price action over the past month or so.