Quote from: sloanf on February 07, 2016, 01:28:12 PM

Look, it's very simple. Initially, his call on 2015.75 aka Big Bang was this:

Quote from: sloanf on January 19, 2016, 04:48:17 PM

Here (August 28th, 2009) http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/will-gold-reach-5000-809.pdf MA says It is coming into its own and is still poised to rally to at least test the $3,000 level if not much higher. And Government has promised the moon, and can no more keep their promise that Santa really eats the cookies. When there is no one who buys the US debt, that is when the ceiling will fall. We will see this most likely after 2010 and it appears the end may be 2015-2016. A 21 year bull market in stocks points to 2015 and a 17.2 year high in gold points to 2016. This does not negate the decline after Labor Day back into 2010 that seems to be shaping up.

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I.e. by 2015\2016 the US debt should have collapsed, right? Did that happen? No.

Then he changed his call by saying that 2015.75 should be the peak in the US government bonds. Did that happen? No. As you told us the bonds are still rising and rising globally. So tell me, how did you arrive at the conclusion that his prediction was correct?

Now, as for "the bond market suffers some kind of crisis and money flees into the US stock market" on which MA based his prediction 32K-40K on the Dow. Why do you take this as a gospel truth? Just take a look what happened last year when bonds declined significantly. Did those funds moved into the Dow? No. Equities were down as well. And finally look at what is going on in Japan https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IRLTLT01JPM156N. The Japanese government bonds have been rising with no collapse and sudden shift into equities since 1990. And when Japanese bonds briefly declined, what did equities do? Did they always rise in response? No. When they did rise, was it because bonds declined? No. So there is absolutely no reason to swallow MA's bs.

Fine, no argument from me there, that gold has not hit 3,000 and US debt is still good. I have no issue with the call not being 100% spot on, as I have said before - every economist I follow gets somethings wrong. They then adjust as the landscape changes.

However a call of stocks at a high in 2015 has been accurate for some major markets

DJIA: Top, May 2015
FTSE: Top, April 2015
DAX: Top, April 2015

I also notice that Armstrong predicates his words with "most likely" etc etc. TPTB will tell you that this is because time and price need to match up to elect that option, otherwise there are many scenarios that can occur. You however may say that is just ass covering. To each their own.

TPTB_needs_war will say though, that time and price need to line up together for a signal to be elected. Before that it is a matter of options. Not too hard to understand.

re: the bond market.

you seem to gloss over words in sentences. I never said that Armstrong's bond call was correct and I never said it was the gospel truth. You are of course being disingenuous. What I was saying is that if MA's call is good, then this may be evidence of its beginning.

You're correct on the JGB market although I'm sure you know the widowmaker is a whole different kettle of fish. Again, it's not swallowing MA's BS, it is reading a scenario and watching if it plays out or not.