Quote from: sloanf on February 18, 2016, 12:52:29 PM

Quote from: tabnloz on February 18, 2016, 11:52:13 AM

Quote from: sloanf on February 18, 2016, 11:07:51 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on February 18, 2016, 09:22:21 AM

What happened to sloanf and his BS nonsense about MA's real estate cycle:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/real-estate-in-decline/

and? What are you trying to prove? Should we listen to an uneducated charlatan who sells crap to idiots like yourself or should we resort to facts? https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CSUSHPINSA

Quote from: sloanf

Looks like yet another charlatan
January 15, 2016, 05:02:04 PM

5. Absolute high in real estate in 2007 - wrong

January 17, 2016,
It shows the peak at 2007.15 and then a decline to 2033. And the reality is real estate now is way higher than 2007 levels almost everywhere. Look at what is going on in San Francisco, LA, New York

You just posted a chart that contradicts your earlier assertions and shows MA to be correct in the US market.

Where exactly, be specific

Quote from: sloanf on January 31, 2016, 05:41:49 PM

How many times do we have to go through this? As with everything else, as we have seen above, you are not able to get things from the first/second/third time. Ok, lets do it again.

That real estate picture that MA claims to have drawn in 1979 uses the Case-Shiller home price index. Back then there was nothing like internationally inflation adjusted value and nowhere was it mentioned by MA or anybody. He started to exploit this trick relatively recently when it became obvious that he failed yet another of his numerous predictions so he had to cover his ass by making it up. Interestingly, he uses that IIM trick on real estate because, as he argues, real estate attracts global money but at the same time he does not use IIM when he makes predictions on the Dow, Gold, Nikkei and so on (which also attract global capital).

Now, if you compare the index and the picture, youll easily find out that they do not match (put it mildly). First, the index had been rising without any drop up until 2006 (the MAs graph predicted drops after every 8.6 years). Second, the absolute high according to MA should have been reached in 2007.15, but in reality the S&P Case-Shiller topped in 2006 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CSUSHPINSA, http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller, and the original Case-Shiller topped in 2005 http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Third, the index significantly recovered and keeps rising, contrary to what MA predicted.

Here is another dirty trick that MA used. When real estate picked he did not say anything. Only after the crisis hit and real estate plunged he came out and claimed that hed predicted the top. Not only that, he claimed that he predicted the top to the day referencing to (wait!) the S&P Reit index. Again, there was nothing about internationally inflation adjusted value or any of such bs. But wait, theres more. The S&P Reit includes not only home RE, but everything else such as residential, office, health-care, hotels, etc. In other words, from very beginning he used the Case-Shiller (only home RE). Then when it didnt work out, he switched to the S&P Reit which tracks all RE, and now he switches again by bs people with a new trick called internationally inflation adjusted value.

I am curious to see what else is he going to come up with when his post-2015 forecast eventually fails.

Specifically the part where you said an absolute high in 2007 was wrong and that real estate was way higher everywhere. You linked to the Case Shiller index, which shows RE has yet to exceed the 2007 peak. Therefore real estate is not way higher everywhere and 2007 is the current peak.

But you make a confused argument: after linking to CSI you said MA used case shiller from the beginning but changed when it didnt work out. Yet, I just showed that the CSI backs up his ECM chart, so which is it?

The bolded parts are exactly what MA predicted (ie to pick up - not however to exceed the previous peak), but now its a dirty trick that you think he didn't say anything about being correct?

As I interpret it, Feb 07 date was a turning point. It just so happened to mark the top in the price of the RE focused REIT.

And you also make the point that the CSI ramps up while the ECM model drops every 8.6 years. Again, here is another article that shows correlation
http://moneyweek.com/is-the-uk-property-market-facing-an-18-year-slump/

"The cycle is by no means perfect. But 2012 did kind of mark the point at which London started to go bananas. His 2007 high coincided with the top in UK property. 1998 was a take-off point. 1989 was a high (before the bear market of 1989-94). 1981 was a take-off point, and so on."