Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX
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I am NOT very good with statistics, but wouldn't the odds of "getting lucky" be infinitesimal without owning many hundreds (or thousands) of masternodes? Wouldn't the odds of securing an entire 10 MN quorum be on the order of:
#MNs Controlled / (3500 * 3499 * 3498 * 3497 * 3496 * 3495 * 3494 * 3493 * 3492 * 3491)
Or am I wrong?
With respect to economic incentive, good point. But the amount offered would have to be significantly greater than the market value, I would imagine. Also, surely any government realizes it would be very easy to just launch an entire new blockchain with the same code, yes? So why bother?
Should be more like this : I am NOT very good with statistics, but wouldn't the odds of "getting lucky" be infinitesimal without owning many hundreds (or thousands) of masternodes? Wouldn't the odds of securing an entire 10 MN quorum be on the order of:
#MNs Controlled / (3500 * 3499 * 3498 * 3497 * 3496 * 3495 * 3494 * 3493 * 3492 * 3491)
Or am I wrong?
With respect to economic incentive, good point. But the amount offered would have to be significantly greater than the market value, I would imagine. Also, surely any government realizes it would be very easy to just launch an entire new blockchain with the same code, yes? So why bother?
% to be elected 10 in a raw = (#MNs Controlled / 3500 ) * (#MNs Controlled -1 ) / (3500 -1) * ... * (#MNs Controlled - 9) / (3500 - 9) *100
Did I do this right? If I were otoh and I still owned 500 MN (he is in the 400's now I believe) the chances of getting control would be 1 in 4.66676105146218 e-9 ?
I'd say that's pretty astronomical. I'm not playing lottery again
If you want to play a numbers game fine. 500 MN = 500,000 Dash held as collateral. If we round up to $4 per Dash, thats $2 million. Currently there are 3500 MN on the network. If somebody wanted to double that it would cost 3500 * 1000 * 4 = $14 million. That's nothing.
Not only that but as masternodes they would be generating Dash on their own, which of course would get dumped on the market to recoup some of the costs.
To double the nodes is impossible at this point (more coins than now exists) and don't you think something might happen to the price along the way? The rise in valuation would be insane and there's no liquidity in the markets anyway, both factors limiting what an attacker could buy.
And the benefits would be hard to see, beyond saying that it would be "broken" in that case, but no REAL damage to the network since only one limited set of transactions would be unmasked. Whether or not the previous probabilities are correct, the system has been designed to make sure that bad actors can't hurt Dash.