You're probably right, but time to maturity is also a factor. If miners have to wait a significant time to obtain their coins, this also has an impact on earnings. Have you derived the expected time to maturity for Eligius' new reward method? If so could you post it here so it can be compared to p2Pools?
Time to maturity is always 100 confirmations, no matter where you mine, unless the pool is doing some kind of advance (or delay). Neither Eligius and p2pool give any advance, and Eligius only delays rewards for the miners' benefit (to avoid transaction fees when you go to spend them, the pool waits until you have earned a reasonable amount).
Defining "Time to maturity" as follows:
Maturity time: This is the average time it takes to receive the due reward. High maturity time causes loss of the time value of money, and risk of the pool being discontinued before the rewards are received.
(from
https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_summary.pdf)
If you find the name confusing, call it "Average time to payment" or some such.
0. Background.
The old Eligius reward method had an average time to maturity greater than that for other methods (for example PPLNS) and certainly longer than 100 or even 120 network confirmations. If there is significantly poor luck, then it may take a while for miners to receive their payment. So while the variance in payments is zero (SMPPS is a PPS variant, so all shares are paid at B/D) the time it catualy takes to recieve your payment varies from no time at all to a significant amount of time. After a pool using SMPPS solves 1000 blocks, on average miners will have had to wait for the pool to solve ~ 8.4 blocks before receiving payment (Further explanation
here).
The derivation of time to maturity for SMPPS is derived in Appendix F of
https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_analysis.pdf1. Question.
Now that I've made clear the meaning of "time to maturity" and shown (with references, albeit my own work) how time to maturity was a problem for SMPPS, I'm wondering what the time to maturity is for the new reward method. Have you derived it yet? I think it's important for miners to know and understand there may be more waiting involved than for other methods. Threads like this one would be much less likely if it was more wisely known and explained.