The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?
My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.
I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?
by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.
So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.
However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.
So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take 1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.
So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.
3600 every single day. Come july only
1800 in new coins will be available for sale. With so much unknown your 3% math makes me laugh.
*Someone doesn't mean one entity. Even if miners decide to carry BTC on their balance sheets then they're doing the buying themselves.