Quote from: pleaseexplainagain on March 20, 2016, 10:45:55 PM

Quote from: DaRude on March 20, 2016, 10:21:04 PM

Quote from: pleaseexplainagain on March 20, 2016, 09:46:22 PM

Quote from: DaRude on March 20, 2016, 09:03:50 PM

Quote from: European Central Bank on March 20, 2016, 01:11:29 PM

Quote from: deadpoolx on March 20, 2016, 12:46:43 PM

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.

So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.

However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.

So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take 1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.

So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.

Right now someone is buying up* BTC3600 every single day. Come july only BTC1800 in new coins will be available for sale. With so much unknown your 3% math makes me laugh.

*Someone doesn't mean one entity. Even if miners decide to carry BTC on their balance sheets then they're doing the buying themselves.

when I buy a bitcoin post halving I am not competing with others to buy the 1800 just minted. I am competing with others in a 15 million bitcoin market. The lessening of supply by 1800 is peanuts and will not move the price.

yes if miners keep their coins they are in effect buying them but at what price? Or rather what price do they wish to sell to pay for electricity etc. I understand alot of minors sell off market to big buyers at much lower prices than the "going' retail bitcoin price.

you are right my 3% is just a guess. But there is no way of being accurate - all i know is the price rise as a result of halving is very very unlikely.
what is your guess for the price in mid july? Post it and we will see who is more accurate then.

No you're not competing with the other 15mil bitcoin market, as most of those bitcoins are NOT for sale. That's basic economics. I don't think we can go any further if you don't agree with basic supply vs. demand concept

As far as predicting the price, i have 16 coins, and one of them will predict correct up/down market moves 4 times in a row!!!!!! Shocked