Quote from: af_newbie on March 22, 2016, 11:24:42 PM

Quote from: Hermel on March 21, 2016, 09:53:47 PM

Survey Results

Summary
The main hypothesis I wanted to test is whether an entrepreneurial mindset (as opposed to a technical mindset) makes you more likely to favor big blocks. And the answer seems yes.

Intro
I thank all 269 respondents, out of which 146 have indicated a numeric block-size preference ranging between 0.5 MB and unlimited, excluding unspecific dynamic answers. All findings revolve around the question of what makes someone a big-blocker or a small-blocker. In here, I consider everyone who wants a block size limit of less than 4 MB to be a small-blocker and those who prefer 4 MB or more to be big-blockers. This somewhat arbitrary decision was taken before analyzing the data. The median being 8 MB, I ended up with 103 big-blockers and 44 small-blockers. This is not representative for bitcoin-users in general and mostly reflects the fact that I received more responses from /r/btc readers than from /r/bitcoin readers.

Findings

There is a deep divide between readers of the traditional two forums and readers of /r/btc. Among /r/bitcoin and bitcointalk readers, 39% are big-blockers, whereas 94% of the /r/btc readers are big-blocker. Among those reading other news sources first, 76% are big-blockers. This was by far the most statistically significant finding (t-stat 6.6). While this is not surprising to anyone paying attention, it is still worrying to see such a schism.
Small-blockers are more likely to see the future of Bitcoin in a settlement system (24%) or digital gold (17%) than big-blockers (10% settlement, 6% gold). This confirms the widespread suspicion that the block-size disagreement is related to what we want Bitcoin to be, although not to the extent I would have expected to see. The "electronic cash system" still clearly wins among every group.
The amount of Bitcoins you own does not seem of much relevance here.
Small-blockers are more likely to find technology more important than business strategy, are more likely to have written Bitcoin-related code, and are more likely to have founded a company.
Big-blockers tend to emphasize the importance of business strategy relative to technology, are more likely to like "Swiss bank account in your pocket" tagline, and are more likely to have plans to found a company.

Comment
I see the block-size decision as a trade-off between a technical risk (loss of decentralization, hard fork, etc.) and a business risk (missing the window of opportunity for growth). If correct, this would mean that people with higher technical awareness would tend to favor smaller blocks while those with an entrepreneurial background would favor bigger blocks. Anecdotal evidence supports this, with entrepreneurs like Erik Voerhees being a big-blocker, and a considerable number of core-devs being small-blockers. This survey also supports this hypothesis with statistical significance (p-value of 0.03), but not to same extent as your preferred news source determines your opinion (p-value of 0.00002). Social scientist usually accept a hypothesis if a p-value of 0.05 or lower is reached.

Personality Test
An accessible way to present these findings is to run a regression on many parameters at once and use the most relevant ones to construct a "personality test" like one can find them in certain women's magazines. This is not very scientific, but fun.

You start with 2 points.

If your primary Bitcoin news source is /r/bitcoin or bitcointalk, subtract 4 points.
If you believe that for Internet companies, technology is a more important success factor than business strategy, subtract 3 points.
If you have written Bitcoin-related source code that others use, subtract 2 points.
If you have plans to found a company, add 2 points.
If you have already founded a company, subtract 2 points. (This goes counter my hypothesis, but is neutralized by other factors.)
If you believe that ten years from now, Bitcoin will rather be seen as "digital gold" than electronic cash or a settlement system, subtract 2 points.
If you find the tagline "Bitcoin: a Swiss bank account in your pocket" catchy, add 2 points.
If you find the tagline "Blocks are like penises: the bigger the better" catchy, add 2 points.[1]
If you find the tagline "Decentralized Bitcoin must not become centralized Bankcoin." catchy, subtract 1 point.

If you end up with a positive amount of points, you are more likely to be a big-blocker, and vice versa.

Disclaimer
This survey does not hold up to scientific standards. While it statistically confirms my hypothesis, I would have hoped for stronger results.

[1] This admittedly crude tagline irritated some of you. This is an identity play in accordance with Scott Adam's persuasion stack (http://blog.dilbert.com/post/136950092871/why-would-a-man-vote-for-hillary-clinton). An association between big-blockers and their anatomy is planted into the reader's brain. If Scott is right, this will work much better than any argument based on reason.

Do you really think it matters what people think? Most people are wrong most of the time.

This problem should be approached the same way as any technical or science problem is tackled. What you (or most people) think is irrelevant.

opinions and noise.. sam0.