Quote from: smooth on May 26, 2011, 05:07:41 AM

Quote from: picollo7 on May 26, 2011, 05:03:04 AM

Ok, so what is a legitimate expectation of future value? I posited a reasonable expectation in 2 months to be about 25 bucks for cost. If the multiplier of 32 remains the same, this means in 2 months BTC will be 800 dollars? I don't think so. I mean, I'd love it to be. I'm long on BTC, but I just don't see it happening.

It depends what expectations are going to be in two months. I don't want to be too circular about it, but unless you base your analysis on value going all the way out, you can't really remove future expectations from the equation.

Some have made the argument that there is a potentially long growth curve ahead for Bitcoin in terms of usefulness. If it captures even a small portion of funds transfers, or even just a good share of the underground economy that could be a lot of value compared to now when it's all pizzas and alpaca socks.

We can all agree that it's based on expectations. I think it's anybody's guess about the long term future. The short term? I'm going to make a guess in two months: 50 USD. I would not be surprised if it was 100, but conservatively, I say 50, based on an extrapolated growth rate, and a multiplier of cost to price ratio of 2. Once the difficulty starts getting too crazy people will not mine as much, but it will still continue to grow, because difficulty increases lag behind growth rate.

Anyone else?