Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX
by
ddink7
on 04/04/2016, 22:29:31 UTC
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Bitcoin's halving is around the corner and there is a concern that this will create mempool transaction problems on Bitcoin's network on a larger scale then previously witnessed
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Why is the halving expected to increase Bitcoin traffic / mempool size?
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Some predict that after halving and no price increase some miners could turn their machines off and hashrate could drop because of that more or less significantly. That would be ok but bitcoin difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so miners who are still mining would have more work to be done to solve a block than it should be for a hashrate like that for quite a long time (normally 2016 is 2 weeks and with lower hashrate this timeframe grows). This would mean larger time between blocks which in its turn would mean more transactions waiting in line to get into the block which could lead for confirmation problems which could decrease the price which will make it unprofitable for more miners which will turn their miners off and there you go - "death spiral".

However some say that that's not going to happen because either price would increase thanks to increased scarcity or because of press covering halving event or simply because miners rent their electricity ahead of a time and a) they have no choice but to mine because they already payed and b) they have made million $$ investments into mining and should have foreseen this situation already.

I have no idea who is correct, so I'll just grab some popcorn and prepare for fireworks Grin

Cool, makes sense. Thanks!

I have thought about the halving as well, and I just don't see a significant drop in network hash rate. Since the mining ASICs have already been purchased, their cost was recognized up-front. Now the only cost to keep them running is the cost of electricity. I foresee only the oldest and most energy-inefficient miners dropping off the network. Everybody else should (in theory) continue running their miners, as long as the expected reward exceeds the expected electrical costs.

I predict a 10-20% reduction in hashpower...with a slower growth in hashrate unless higher prices come into play.