Quote from: LMGTFY on April 10, 2016, 04:08:32 PM

Quote from: uki on April 10, 2016, 03:51:14 PM

Quote from: LMGTFY on April 10, 2016, 11:15:34 AM

Thanks! I see the repeating as being within an ever-diminishing range - $200-500 in October-November, $320-470 in December-January, $360-450 in February-March. I view this as (a) a sign that a breakout from this is imminent (good news for traders desperate for volatility), and (b) that support and resistance levels are sloping, not flat.

My TA view is a bit different: we are in a horizontal trend between $350 and 420 since mid-January. Since then we managed to have one false breakout that stalled at $450. Since there are no reasons to either move significantly up or down we stay in that channel. We are pegged to its upper band due to the halving perspective, yet that is not enough to resolve (break out).

Interesting, thanks!

With SegWit due this month I've been wondering whether it would coincide with my expected move. Do you think it could be the catalyst to a break out from your horizontal channel? (I'm not taking a position on whether SegWit is good or bad, mostly because I think the market's view will be much more interesting and relevant than mine, but I am getting increasingly bored by the lack of volatility).

I am not sure, if the SegWit will be the catalyst to provide the break out. It may be still too early, too far from halving event, I mean. Once we are close to the halving we will get the spark (maybe something completely unimportant, or no news at all, like last time in November) and it will get going pretty quick. Horizontal trends are boring and long, unfortunately. However the longer the wait, the bigger the potential move after break out.