Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 14, 2016, 10:50:09 AM

Quote from: r0ach on April 14, 2016, 09:39:17 AM

What exactly do you define the Armstrong model as? When Bitcoin Core devs get mad at me about some random technical disagreement, words like "come on, you're not omniscient" are usually said. So are you saying that when I claim it's an error-prone, probablistic model, that's wrong? What else could it possibly be? Are you really going to assign omniscient traits to this guy's gambling system?

As for your website, it's kind of bizarre that I have similar conclusions involving AI that you did, almost word for word in the David Latapite "transhumanism" thread from a year ago where I said true AI is impossible without human evolution, except in probably more detail. Then the actual, real danger of AI or attempts to create it is in the last paragraph. From my post:

[...]

The unbounded attribute of the universe appears to be fractal, i.e. patterns within patterns. So the unbounded entropy is in the small, not in the large. This is why Armstrong points out that short-term cycles (e.g. day trading) are much more noisy (i.e. randomized). The higher-level the cycles in time, the less random the deviation.

So while A.I. will eventually emulate much of what it can observe that a set of humans can do, it can't (unless it becomes integrated within evolution and competitive reproduction) make every copy of itself a unigue solution to the unbounded evolutionary fitness continuum. The unseen fractal patterns encoded in the evolutionary continuum are not carried within the genome and dynamic living network of A.I. bots, because for one thing they are discrete and not analog biological. The complexity/entropy of a living creature is unbounded in the unseen fractal patterns encoded in the evolutionary continuum.

Here is the key point. Nature is not top-down controlled and there is no 'error' as every variation is information to the evolutionary continuum. A.I. would need to become alive in the sense that it is a self-reproducing, self-motivated, decentralized process controlled by no one. Then it would no longer be ARTIFICIAL intelligence.

So Armstrong has correlated the large fractal pattern cycles which are stable as is man's lifespan, reproductive maturity, Sun spots cycles, Earth's various cycles such as earthquakes, etc..