Quote from: Nxtblg on April 16, 2016, 08:27:18 PM

Quote from: smooth on April 16, 2016, 12:48:01 AM

Quote from: smfuser on April 16, 2016, 12:20:59 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 13, 2016, 01:03:07 PM

No one listens to me even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need.

Would you mind making each future market prediction in a binary form (which can be objectively judged as true or false by a specified date) along with a specific numeric probability estimate (which you can subsequently update any time)?

Probabilistic predictions are okay as long as you keep a comprehensive list of all of them. You can then test how many of the "80%" predictions are satisfied relative to the ideal 80%.

Now that you mention it, I'm surprised that someone hasn't done that with Gallup's huge swath of polls.

Nate Silver has been evaluating the quality of pollsters for a long time, as discussed here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-calculates-pollster-ratings/