Quote from: Amph on April 18, 2016, 05:56:52 PM

Quote from: dooglus on April 18, 2016, 04:29:58 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on April 18, 2016, 12:38:38 PM

the halving is a non-event with respect to price, or at most it is an event of trivial proportion. There is nothing to price in or not price in.

The halving halves the supply of new coins from 3600 coins per day to 1800 coins per day.

If we take a simplistic view that there is a steady demand of 3600 coins per day at the current price then it is safe to assume that suddenly halving the supply while not changing the demand will cause an increase in price.

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

there is a fallacy in this that assume that the dumped coin are equal to the total coins produced, what if they are only dumping 900 coins per day, which is inf act equal to their consumption since the ratio is 4:1 right now between consumption and earning?

this will lead us to the fact that with the halving the dumping will change only by 450 coins per day, which is nothing for the market

The market is the market. If demand remains steady (not saying it does) and supply is cut in half (this IS guaranteed), price should double. Demand is a big unknown - probably the majority of it is NOT for commerce, but rather for SPECULATION. I believe that speculators have asymmetrical knowledge, and vary widely in their understanding of investing, markets, and cryptos. Thus the next 3 months are going to be an interesting time... If the halving is already priced in, in theory there could be no movement, or even a downward movement, at next halving. I regard this as unlikely. Downtrends are usually panic-based.

Let's remember that miners are not required to sell coins mined. Incentive to sell increases as price increases. If I was mining on a huge scale right now, I'd probably be pocketing all of my coin, while quietly selling off my mining gear for more coin...

As discussed previously, miners have a collective incentive to keep prices up, so logically they're engaged in price boosting using any and all techniques available. Traders are interested in volatility and had their pump-n-dump fun a few years back. An unknown group is likely interested in shorting, I guess this group would include state actors?