Quote from: odolvlobo on April 19, 2016, 07:18:42 AM

Quote from: dooglus on April 18, 2016, 04:29:58 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on April 18, 2016, 12:38:38 PM

the halving is a non-event with respect to price, or at most it is an event of trivial proportion. There is nothing to price in or not price in.

The halving halves the supply of new coins from 3600 coins per day to 1800 coins per day.

If we take a simplistic view that there is a steady demand of 3600 coins per day at the current price then it is safe to assume that suddenly halving the supply while not changing the demand will cause an increase in price.

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

The halving does not halve the supply. The supply increases with every block. Bitcoins are not consumed. The 3600 BTC mined yesterday will be part of the supply today, and the 3600 BTC mined today will be part of the supply tomorrow, along with the 3600 BTC mined yesterday. Even if you consider 90% of the coins mined each day as lost or otherwise consumed or unavailable, the supply still increases with every block.

Consider this: when the number of bitcoins mined each day drops to 0, will we suddenly run out of bitcoins? No. At that point, the supply will be constant (ignoring market factors and lost coins). As long as new bitcoins are being mined, the supply is increasing.

Bitcoins are not "consumed" per se but the number of people holding them or using them for trading \ speculation are constantly increasing; so we can assume that the demand mean is increasing over a long period of time.

I still belive that the bitcoin price isn't 100% influenced by demand\offer tho; it's highly speculative. And thus i belive the expectation for the price increase will drive the price up by itself