Anonymint, you are trying way too hard to get Bitcoin to fit some Armstrong gold forecast when the two have no correlation...
The halving is not some insignificant event. It dwarfs any tiny change in interest rates or other variables. There is also the fact that Bitcoin would be seen by some as a failure if the halving was unable to produce any increase in price, so vested interests (me being one of them) will engineer it to prevent that from happening, hence why you already see a $25 price increase. What is sustainable is unknown, and will only be known a month or two afterwards, but the price will be raised to find out.
Actually that's true. I pointed out several times in the Armstrong thread how wrong TPTB_need_war is with his Bitcoin forecasts, and that's the source of the errors: he is trying to correlate BTC with the gold model of Armstrong.
There is a very strong correlation.
There is some correlation, but making the projection that BTC will follow the gold price and going down with the gold price is more of a wild guess than a rational argument. Especially it is a wild guess, because it is not clear at all whether the decline of gold and Armstrong's projection will be materialized or not. The decline of gold price is very much on the table - just like the opposite is. (I am talking about mid and long term).
I fully understand what you say terms of the sovereign debt crisis and the unsustainability of the system. I totally get what Armstrong says and I subscribe to 90% of his analysis.
However, you and Armstrong always forget that the central banks, the Troika and the crooks of Wall street are infinitely creative in coming up with all kind of solutions to preserve the status quo. Armstrong could never imagine the central banks will come up with quantitative easing. Here we go, they did and bought another 5-10 perhaps even 20 years and a few elections for the establishment.
Logic dictates and history indicates Armstrong is correct and the system most likely will collapse at some stage, but there are many variables exist which could screw up and in fact do screw up his projections from time to time.