Post
Topic
Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: The bottom will drop out of the alt market soon
by
kiklo
on 29/04/2016, 02:49:16 UTC
Indeed this is what is predicted for 2017 to 2020ish. But first there will be an initial asset-wide reaction to a global liquidity squeeze when the interest rates change direction. Then the capital flight movement (from the liquidity crisis affected economies) leads to a concentration in USD, US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold and other tangible private assets will upward spiral (positive feedback loop effect) into to a bubble stampede into them. Thus the V bottom slingshot prediction.

Bitcoin is a (perceived) high risk, high reward, emerging market.  The people who are investing in Bitcoin don't care about some miniscule change in interest rates because they're chasing the high risk, high reward market anyway.  If it wasn't Bitcoin, it would be buying land next to a volcano or something, NOT a bank.  Interest rates do not matter for Bitcoin.  You might be able to draw some tiny correlation, but nothing big enough to matter.  

Gold, on the other hand, the market cap is already assumed to be somewhat maxed out, so things like interest rates actually do matter for that market while being meaningless for Bitcoin.  Any type of new development announcement, the halving, ETF acceptance, etc, completely dwarfs whatever interest rates are doing.

Those people are mostly venture capitalist, and they usually follow the best sales pitch , not the best solution.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/venturecapitalist.asp
Quote
A venture capitalist is an investor who either provides capital to startup ventures or supports small companies that wish to expand but do not have access to equities markets.
Venture capitalists are willing to invest in such companies because they can earn a massive return on their investments if these companies are a success.

Venture capitalists also experience major losses when their picks fail, but these investors are typically wealthy enough that they can afford to take the risks associated with funding young, unproven companies that appear to have a great idea and a great management team.

Interest rates may or may not matter to Venture Capitalists , but it does matter to individuals that can think and want a profit while keeping their principle intact.  Smiley
So interest rates will make all of these individuals head in certain directions based on guaranteed rate of return.

VCs may help get a technology started, but individuals will decide if it is a success or failure and they do pay attention to interest rates.
And no interest rate is the big issue for BTC, there is no reason to hold it except a speculative hope to sell on an increase.

 Cool

FYI:
Never forget Satochi BTC wallet with 1,148,800 BTC
https://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/
If that wallet is ever cashed out BTC price will collapse like an imploding star.