Thanks for the analysis. So the "prediction" model is based on the "numbers" that happened in the past, and assuming based on the previous tread.
Are you going to improve the model using more factors such as reward halving, development in blockchain discussion, and the rise of ethereum, and so on...?
Technical analysis doesnt work like that, just the figures are considered. The reasoning being that all market participants are aware of the factors you mention, ergo these are reflected in the market action. On the basis of halving we can presume people are aware and anticipating a rise due to lower supply, its a simple effect and in theory predictable result however its a moving target and TA is capturing the effect not the detail so much afaik