Quote from: STT on May 01, 2016, 11:31:18 PM

Quote from: 7788bitcoin on April 19, 2016, 01:51:17 PM

Thanks for the analysis. So the "prediction" model is based on the "numbers" that happened in the past, and assuming based on the previous tread.

Are you going to improve the model using more factors such as reward halving, development in blockchain discussion, and the rise of ethereum, and so on...?

Technical analysis doesnt work like that, just the figures are considered. The reasoning being that all market participants are aware of the factors you mention, ergo these are reflected in the market action. On the basis of halving we can presume people are aware and anticipating a rise due to lower supply, its a simple effect and in theory predictable result however its a moving target and TA is capturing the effect not the detail so much afaik

One problem that I do have with the 'Halving Pump', is that EVERYONE is expecting it. This may explain why USD swaps on Finex for Margin Longs have gotten so high. They got up to $31 Million at the top of the pump and have only been brought down $1.2 Million or so. How likely are 'they' to pump Bitcoin for the benefit of a big pile traders in Margin Long positions (i.e. long Bitcoin, but not holding it, and in pressing need of profit taking once targets are hit). I suspect that this big heap of margin longs needs to be thinned out a bit (via the medium of downside) before 'they' will be willing to pump this bitch. I would also like to see the BTC swaps for Margin Shorts, pile back up at as spot puts in a likely bottom, from which the Halving Pump can commence.

Another problem I have with 'the halving pump', is that BTC miners must be withholding a shit ton of BTC, in anticipation of dumping it somewhere near the top of the pump, ar presumably much higher prices than we are now at. On the one hand, this is precisely why forces will conspire to pump BTC higher. Too much big capital invested in Bitcoin is counting upon it, on the otherhand, if 'they' for some reason aren't able to pump this bitch, then man oh man, them miners must be holding a shit ton of BTC that they will desperately need to offload by now.