Quote from: TPTB_need_war on May 01, 2016, 10:46:43 PM

Quote from: pinky on May 01, 2016, 12:39:44 PM

Quote from: freshman777 on May 01, 2016, 12:27:04 PM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 30, 2016, 10:53:18 PM

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!! Shocked

Hilarious, so no gold under $850 or Bitcoin under $150 this year. When predictions don't come true, you just make a new one Cheesy

Fed ain't raising no rates, they are searching for every possible excuse not to raise them and they are succeeding every Fed meeting, the one they did in December was a game of chicken, they learned they are the chicken. Hyperinflation baby. Bitcoin I am not sure, it's crippled by chinese miners, it can go belly up any minute.

lol, moving targets. He is trying to be prophet, yet he knows shit what will happen. I remember last year how he preached about BTC and Gold hitting the bottom. Since then BTC up 100%, Gold up +20%.

His problem is that he is trying to explain and predict what is going to happen with freebies that MA puts out here and there. Well, even MA was wrong this time, even though he won't admit it.

I did not have a copy of the gold report from last year, but someone I communicate with did. He told me the benchmarks indicated that gold would "most likely" still make lower lows (e.g. < $1050, with the first target for a bottom of $850), and that the first possible timeframe for the low was end of Q1 2016 (contrary to what I was thinking was just after 2015.75). Upon learning that, I stopped thinking Bitcoin would move lower than the mid $200s before then.

The benchmarks stated that the USA dollar and and USA stocks had to start moving in unison as another criteria and if this wasn't the case, then the benchmark low would be pushed out in time until they do.

Thus none of his predictions have failed. Those who expect him to say "this will happen on this date" are building a strawman illogic, because MA never predicts such. His method is to provide a "if this, then that" analysis of the computer model's outputs. As I explained my post yesterday upthread, since the Euro has made MONTHLY BULLISH reversals, this indicates a move back into the Euro by the speculation markes with a potential top 117 to 125+. Thus this indicates that the USA dollar will not just break out to the upside yet (i.e. that the world's capital is not yet fleeing to seek safe haven in the USA dollar which will come eventually). And the USA stock market has been up recently, so still out-of-sync with the USA dollar. So the interpretation of this appears to be that prediction markets are expect a "No" result for the upcoming BREXIT vote this June 23, 2016. Thus USA dollar down, and if USA stocks also follow the USA dollar down, then this would be the FALSE MOVE (moving in unison) that would load the SLINGSHOT move to the upside for the newly aligned safe haven assets of the dollar, USA stocks, gold, Bitcoin, collectibles, tangibles (e.g. land), etc.. Thus the earliest date (which is also confirmed by the computer model) is the May/June followed by August, etc..

What appears to be the most likely outcome is that the EU will experience a resurgence of hot money inflows due to the "Remain" result for the BREXIT referendum. This will be a deadcat bounce extremis while the fundamentals will grow worse (fiscal, debt, migrant crises). If the USA dollar and USA stocks both decline at the same time due to this shift of the movement of hot money to the EU, Euro, UK pound, Europe stocks, then it means the world will become less risk adverse for that brief period, which will send gold down also since gold is a hedge against government failure. Whether Bitcoin also follows down is not stated by MA's model, because he isn't tracking it. But the USA dollar and USA stocks coming into alignment, would mean all safe haven assets go down. The likely event triggering such for Bitcoin is the exhale for the priced in expectation of price rise on the July halving, and also the realization that Blockstream's SegWit scaling solution is inadequate without more "soft version forks' later, but the realization that inserting this "soft fork versioning" in Bitcoin's protocol along with Blockstream cooperating with China's 65+% share (to increase on the halving as marginal miners fall away) of mining control means that Bitcoin is no longer a decentralized currency and thus Bitcoin has failed. But later the markets will rebound when they realize "nevermind" just use Bitcoin any way (and besides Bitcoin's true main market and use case is not for ideological perfect decentralized currency but rather as the unit-of-account for decentralized crypto-gambling).

Edit: this video explanation from MA, seems to indicate the FALSE MOVE described above, is expected to continue until 2017.95! Again this is really wow! So USD, USA stocks, gold, and Bitcoin could decline from this June or August until the end of 2017! Wow! The years 2018 and 2019 are going to hell on earth. We will see massive economic collapse, as well a global pandemic might resurface during this period (according to MA's cyclic models of pandemics).

MA's model provides key dates and it provides indications such as "Panic Cycle", "Directional Change", etc. on each asset analyzed. His model also provides "if this, then that" benchmarks on price reversals in both directions.

From this, the speculator can watch the market and try to interpret how the real world is matching the model and then infer decisions with a much better than 50% probability.

Something important does always happen on the ECM turn dates. For example:

1. On March 13/14 2016, the deadcat bounce of Baltic Sea index (measure of the world's trade activity) rolled over and started to decline again.

2. On 2015.75, was precisely the event that began WW3 and the stage of the conflict that sent the migrants invading Europe:

Quote from: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/are-terrorist-attacks-following-the-8-6-year-frequency/

Putin invaded Syria precisely on September 30, 2015, which was to the day of 2015.75. That warned that whatever takes place right on the day becomes the main focus. Putin then withdrew precisely on pi day. So what is taking place from the Middle East will break the back of Europe economically as governments seek to raise taxes to pay for the pretend refugees as well as extremists who have infiltrated Europe and destabilized its borders and security. This is unwinding the entire freedom of movement within Europe which was the cornerstone of the EU concept. With borders resurfacing, Brussels begins its decline.

Even 9/11 took place right on our pi target from the peak in the ECM. This is starting to demonstrate that there is, in fact, a cycle to this type of activity that is following the 8.6 frequency. The Madrid attack on the train was March 11, 2004, or 2004.19. If we project target dates from the USA 9/11 incident, we arrive at 2004.16, which was March 1 or 10 days earlier before the attack. We have been running various terrorist attacks through our models. The list is indeed long (see Wikipedia). Nonetheless, it appears that certain groups do fall into unique cycle frequencies. This appears to enable one to determine which group was behind what.

2002.780 Indonesia Bali Oct 12, 2002 2002.810 Moscow October 23, 2002 2003.372 Morocco, Casablanca May 16, 2003 2003.361 Riyadh Saudi Arabia May 12, 2003 2003.887 Turkey, Istanbul November 20, 2003 2004.191 Madrid March 11, 2004 2004.668 Beslan, Russia September 1 3, 2004

Lets face the facts. The Economic Confidence Model works with such precision it is often mind-numbing. This is monitoring human activity as a coherent, collective economic entity of civilization that materializes by people coming together. I suppose it makes sense that we are influenced collectively to respond with a cyclical rhythm. It appears the same is reflected in terrorist activity.

3. From my March, 2009 essay:

Quote from: http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.09/justtime.html

I don't know if anyone else has commented already, that Martin Armstrong's "It Is Just Time" prediction made back in October 2008, for a major turn event on March 19, nailed the exact day (after) the Fed announced to start buying government bonds directly.

He had also predicted ahead of time the turn that coincided with the peak in the precious metals prices last March 2008.

Google "Martin Armstrong", for the remarkable story about how accurate his computer model predictions have been, and him being in the maximum security prison without a trial, together with the Shoe Bomber and the Unibomber, alledgedly because of his unwillingness to share his model with the CIA.

well my financial astrologist does the same thing... planets affect moods. He says dow 32k with usd and us equities rising together (which already started). Hes bearish gold. Has never really been that wrong.