Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 11, 2016, 02:26:57 AM

Quote from: Fakhoury on May 11, 2016, 02:00:47 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 10, 2016, 09:30:48 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on May 10, 2016, 12:15:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 10, 2016, 03:39:01 AM

Quote from: Fakhoury on May 10, 2016, 03:13:13 AM

By the way bother, you shocked me when I saw you believeing in $25K - $250K within 5-10 years as I don't know if you re-call or not when we were talking on PM, you had nearlly 0.x% chance that we will reach those values within the given timeframe.

Don't get me wrong, you are a buddy and brother of mine, I just see and understand you are a bull and not a permabull like the minority rest of us.

I would like to know what caused to elevate your bullishness to that level, I'm extremely happy btw to see you crazy like us Tongue

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this. There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings. So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation. Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k". Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today. If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point.

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities.

Heres the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 27, 2015, 02:59:14 AM

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Heres my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much. Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000 5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance

I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

You are most welcome my friend.

Lets assume that this year we will reach $1,000 and next one $3,000

Could you please show me your new speculation buddy.

I will tell you why I stated $1K and $3K after you write the new speculation.

For a few reasons, I have a bit of a difficult time with your framing of the hypothetical scenario that you want me to assume $1,000 and $3,000, and actually your reframing of the question, points out a bit of a weakness in my categorizing contained within my above earlier answer.

Let me see if I can get you to agree to some other numbers or frameworks.

First, $1,000 is a strange ass price point or focal point.. yeah, it's contained in my earlier projection of possible ranges, but it should be referenced a bit differently - both based on bitcoin's history and based on more likely price surge and FOMO scenarios.

I'm not the only poster in these forums to suggest that we're not going to $1,000.. either we are going to $800, or some place a bit below $800 or we are going quite passed $1000, something like $3,000 to $5,000..

Yeah, we may return to $1,000 after visiting the $3k to $5k range but that's a different part of the potential story.

O.k... I think that if you are going to frame hypotheticals for this year and for next year... the first hypothetical range would be that we pass in the $800 to $2000 range within this year... and really I have a hard time with almost any number in that range, but I would be willing to agree that once we past $800 that $2,000 could possibly be within the low end of the range that we would meet.... but in fact, I have the sense that the whole range of $800 to $5,000 is almost the same thing.... we get passed $800 then we likely bounce into the $3k to $5k range...

So, my request, is that you should reframe your hypothetical to change the numbers a bit because otherwise, I think that any prediction that I would be making would be based on BTC price point assumptions that do not make too much sense to me under either bitcoin's history or likely scenarios that would occur after passing various resistance points.

Alternatively, if you could explain some of the various assumptions underlying your framework and your BTC price point numbers, I may be willing to adapt my "battle of the framework" to come over a bit more to your thinking. Wink

You know what my dear friend, sorry for getting off-topic a bit, but when I read your replies, you remind me of one of my best friends ever IRL, I miss him so much, may Allah (God) bless both of you

Back to topic, there is a guy named something Vinny I guess, wrote a blog post named, Bitcoin 2016 The Awekaning, and it was featured on Zero Hedge.

The guy who copied it to ZH stated that he is type of a guy who knows his shit so well, where if he talks, we shall listen as he predicited a lot of price scanerios in the past and he was correct.

He stated that we MAY visit $1K this year and $3K in the coming year.

I somehow gave him some credibality for what he said, so I asked you to re-adjust your predications depending on this new specualtion.

Did I convince you Grin

?