Quote from: sockpuppet1 on May 13, 2016, 09:57:30 AM

Quote from: DimensionZ on May 13, 2016, 09:53:35 AM

Hey guys I have a question that just popped up in my mind. What if the price of Bitcoin doesn't increase much after the halving and with the cut in half block rewards and increasing difficulty, do you think the Chinese miners will go bankrupt or they will manage to break even and get a slight profit? Can the Chinese government offer the mining farms preferential electricity pricing lower than the average for the country?

The first to go bankrupt are the marginal miners, not the ones with the lowest electricity costs and the highest efficiencies due to very large economies-of-scale in mining farms.

The halving will INCREASE the centralization of Bitcoin's hashrate (to China's mining farms), not decrease it.

Satoshi designed the distribution curve this way. Who is your hero, who is your daddy who sold you to the banksters?

Quote from: r0ach on May 13, 2016, 11:54:44 AM

Quote from: sockpuppet1 on May 13, 2016, 11:42:27 AM

Exactly because their leveraged obligations and margin calls are in cash. And that is not Bitcoin "cash".

I don't think you're taking into account what demographic is actually being "squeezed" in a liquidity crunch. The people who own most of these things (BTC) are already rich in the first place and have no debt. The people who aren't rich and own them have some totally insignificant amount.

The real people getting squeezed are the middle class Americans with McMansions, private schools, and cars they can't afford. What is the common denominator of that group? They all own stocks and none of them own Bitcoin. People on the bottom and middle are the ones being squeezed. Stocks are mainstream, Bitcoin and gold aren't. Therefore, the stock dump will be horrific while things such as Bitcoin, as long as the confidence level is high (from 12.5 block reward halving bubble gains) will not only not go down, but will probably be going up as a safe haven from banks that will Cyprus you because Bitcoin is cash without counterparty risk.

Well I lately more and more realize that Bitcoin is a funnel where n00bs come in to buy and miners cash out. The stalwarts don't buy more, as they are few in number and already have their big portion.

So an interruption in the stream of n00bs might have a domino deleveraging effect, since many people loan their BTC short to earn extra revenue.

Leverage may be hiding where you think you see only HODLers.

Also with the halving and marginal miners not wanting to turn their ASICs into door stops, they may be in a more strained position and need to deleverage in a contagion.

Quote from: smooth on May 13, 2016, 12:03:47 PM

There is leverage from lending BTC for income, but if holders fear counterparty risk and instead pull their coins off exchanges that will only squeeze the shorts and drive the price higher, potentially much higher. I don't think anyone really knows how much short leverage is out there.

If they fear counterparty risk, they will cause a stampede and cause counterparty defaults.

The slowdown in buying from n00bs, can cause the price to drop, which will cause the enriched shorts to pile on (cash out their initial investment and gamble the profits) overshooting to the lower low bottom. Plus all the copycats chasing the trend especially with the "world is falling down" hysteria.

V bottom on steriods. Buy the bottom same as in 2009.

Quote from: sockpuppet1 on May 13, 2016, 12:46:32 PM

Look guys it is very simple. Bitcoin is not the fiat that everyone uses as their unit-of-account, thus fiat up, Bitcoin down just like every other speculative (hot money) asset in a liquidity crunch.

People invest in Bitcoin to make money, not to hold it as a heirloom. Thus when shorting becomes the new profit trend, the speculators chase the trend. The loaners of BTC raise their rates. Everybody is happy. Bitcoin goes down.

2008 took silver from $21 to $9. Bitcoin is more volatile than silver.

Come on guys, Bitcoin is not cash. That is the dumbest thing I've ever read. Bitcoin is a crypto gambler's addiction. Period. You guys need to get out and get some fresh air and look at yourselves more objectively.

China already owns over 80% from the miners . The chinesse exchangers are owning around of 95% from trading volume too

Of course, the price is manipulated on how the exchanger's cartel wants and the stupids/blinds people are saying: "BTC belongs to US"

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