The halving is soon, the sensible prediction would be sideways 'ish' for a month or three. Then when the halving has had an effect we'll go to around $550-600 at least.
I guess it's possible a few whales could manipulate the price by selling a load of coins to crash the price pre halving & then buy back in before the predicted halving related rise.
Aside from that I haven't seen anything really negative that'd cause a sizeable drop.
Anybody else agree?
The halving is already priced in. Everyone knows about it, miners are prepared, it's not like it's gonna sneak up on them and shoot the price up. All the coins are already priced in. The only thing not priced in is any changes.
Also the bollinger bands, just because the bands are tight right now doesn't mean we're going up. We can also go down, but last time the bands were this tight, we went sideways for some time.
Even if what you are saying has a 50% chance of becoming true (and that is really giving you a large benefit of the doubt), I would not wait for such a thing because it seems equally probable and even more probable to go up... .. but even given such a bear outlook, probably at minimum you should have 20% of your bitcoin allocated holdings in bitcoin, in case you are not correct. My view is that 80-90% in bitcoin would be more prudent, but whatever, each of us have a right to our own viewpoints.