Quote from: malandante on May 20, 2016, 10:56:05 PM

Quote from: Claymore on May 20, 2016, 09:16:04 PM

Quote from: malandante on May 20, 2016, 08:42:04 PM

Quote from: jstefanop on May 20, 2016, 06:45:24 PM

Quote from: malandante on May 20, 2016, 04:44:12 PM

So probability is not the only thing that matters.

Sorry, but your wrong. Probability is all that matters, and regardless what you think or see in the short term does not matter, so your point is not valid. Regardless of whether your solo or pool mining, the def fee wont change hard math. Over time, If you solo mine 100 blocks, 1 block will be missed due to the dev fee on average. If your on the pool your hashrate will be shown 1% less on average.

In the theory it is the only thing that matters but I think there are other things to consider aside from theory.

Let's think about a possible scenario: I mine solo with my 300 mh/s and I should hit one block every 1.5 days. If 1.5 days pass and I didn't hit a block, then I can say I missed a block. This can be due to dev time or just to bad luck, let's say it is due to dev time. Then I need to find a block "within time" the next 99, on average. This means that, if everything goes on average, after 150 days my figures will be correct. What if, by chance, I miss 2 blocks due to dev fee? Then I need luckier times or I will go to 300 days to even out.

When the hashrate is so little as mine, it is possible that you need a lot of time for your figures to even out if you had bad luck. And POW is not forever. Is this a correct thought?

If it is not a wrong thought, then there is a hashrate threshold below which it is dangerous to solo mine with CDM because you risk to not even out in case of bad luck. And then for the real mining, not the theory, probability is not only thing to take into account. Please I insist, I am not a math guy, correct me.

Your point of view is wrong but it seems it's a complex task to prove that to you. I will try one more time.
For example, you mine for one hour with some hashrate. Within this time there is some probability to find a block.
After that, you mine for 59 minutes with the same hashrate. Will you agree that the probability to find a block now is less by 1/60? If you agree, you must also agree that 1% devfee time reduces probabilty to find a block within any time with any hashrate by 1%.
If you don't agree, it means that you think that 1% of time means more than 0.01 of 100% time - I can advice you to read some book about probability theory. Before that, don't even reboot your rig because you will lose all blocks because of missed 1 minute of mining

Imagine the following situation: my hashrate is such that I must find 1 block per day. POW finishes in 10 days. In days 1 to 9 I find only 1 block. Extreme bad luck but, can't it be? Then probability will make me find 9 blocks in last day? No. In day 10 POW is finished and I'm f#*% up. What is wrong in this?

Thats what u get if u choose solo. If u dont like to deal with probability then pool mining is ur way.