Quote from: franky1 on May 22, 2016, 09:44:15 PM

Quote from: rizzlarolla on May 22, 2016, 09:13:42 PM

What do you estimate the best case for segwit to have any effect on tx backlog, tx's that I presume are supposed to keep growing.
(remember bitcoin adoption?)
Anyway, 6 months minimum before segwit has any effect on tx backlog, probably, most likely longer.

(a)IF segwit was active in 2016 (before LN, before CPC is a thing) then segwit possibly could handle 1.8x current block capacity..(for 1.8mb real data)
(b)IF segwit was active in 2017 due to the request to include the 2mb hard fork aswell (making the 5.7mb total bloat with CPC or 3.6mb without CPC) then the capacity would be ~3x current capacity

now for the backlog question..

no one knows how many people will transact in the future..

imagining lets say only 2500tx average are let in a block currently[1] .. but where 5000 people doing individual transactions every 10 minutes (backlog example)
[1] estimate based on block 412946 & block 412945 being recent and offering around 2500tx for 998kb

segwit in 2016 would still not quite allow all them transactions in.. (average allowance increases to 4500tx)
segwit+HF 2017 would (as the capacity is about 7600tx per block) as long as popularity stayed below 7600 people making tx per 10 minute(average).

Quote from: rizzlarolla on May 22, 2016, 09:13:42 PM

Then, even worse, segwit will be rushed and effectively released untested.

Who has access to this segwit/presegwit testnet?

its available for anyone to download the testnet release on github.

Thanks for those facts.

I really dont get the logic - how could a HF be in the roadmap and is soooo dangerous right now? How will this 'HF fear' be eased and selled in 2017?

BTW: THE HF is already in the making. The comunity is hard forked and btc forked into eth ....

Fees are higher now, yes - but if peace & adoption & price would be higher, miners would be happier.

Happy days!