Quote from: dysonlu on May 31, 2016, 04:52:24 AM

Quote from: btcbug on May 26, 2016, 12:55:40 AM

Thought this was a pretty decent post by M.A. explaining his theory (the dollar strengthening first over the next while) vs what a lot of others think (dollar steadily weakening from this point).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/dollar-reality-end-of-petro-dollars/

That post is gold to me. It nicely summarizes his view of the current situation. And his scenario does seem to make sense.

That MA blog post well summarized what had been explained in this thread by those who understood well MA's theme. Heck I first read about the dollar short phenomenon in MA's 2013 blog post. He wrote about it again in 2014.

Gold deadcat bounced to $1309 precisely as predicted. Now is threatening to break down through $1205 to make eventually lower lows below $1050.

Bitcoin is making its deadcat bounce now on the rumor of halving. Bitcoin has always been out-of-phase with gold, yet aligned on the secular trend. Remember buy the rumor, sell the news. Nothing has changed since Bitcoin's gold rush fever mania peaked at $1200 in 2013. A permabull would see the current pattern since the 2013 peak resembles the pattern since the April 2013 peak and crash that lead to the $1200 peak. So the permabull thinks Bitcoin is headed to $3000+ now. But the permabull fails to note that BTC did not make lower lows after the initial waterfall crash in April 2013, yet during the current declining pattern since the $1200 peak, BTC continued to make lower lows. Bitcoin can't enter a new goldrush fever now, as there is no impetus for it. The big money will sell on 100% gain off the $250 level. For example, Australia just sold 29,000 confiscated BTC because of the rise of the price.

We have a deadcat bounce same as for gold and all alternative assets, because the BREXIT will fail and thus we will get a deadcat rise on the Euro to 1.21 - 1.25 which will suck capital out of all the safe haven assets as speculators chase the stampede back into the renewed (erroneous) confidence in the Euro and Europe. MA predicted all these levels, and even the 1.16 reversal to 1.11. Everything has been playing out exactly as predicted by MA.

Bottoms are only reached with either a V bottom due to the permabulls capitulating short at the bottom and the massive short covering rally, or by a long drawn out U bottom. Neither of those have occurred yet for gold nor BTC. So the bottoms are much lower still.

r0ach will not believe until it happens.

When Trump is elected and especially given he will ignite trade and currency wars, this will turn the focus back towards the dollar and the deadcat bounce of the "Happy Days Are Here Again For Yurope" will be Dashed. And then by Q1 2017, the mad stampede back into the dollar safe haven and alternative assets. And that is when the $10 trillion short carry trade on dollars in corporate bonds and currency pegs will unravel, interest rates in the USA will go up and the scorched earth will be underway.

Prepare accordingly yours truly,
Iamnotback

P.S. It is possible that Bitcoin is not correlated to macro economics and is on its own path due to being a nascent technology. Anything is possible. I write my 2 cents about what I think is most probable. The current rise in Bitcoin is too fast (nearly vertical on the long-term view) and is not backed by a new mania. There is no reason for a mania to form now. The mania of global economic totalitarianism and safe haven seeking will start in earnest 2017. Also the instant micro-transactions might ignite the next mania in Bitcoin, but I doubt that is 2016:

Quote from: . on May 15, 2016, 11:31:56 AM

For the moment Bitcoin is only a gambler's paradise, but the conversion to instant microtransactions is the key to launching it into mass adoption.

That is why the block chain size debate has been so contentious, because it is a battle over who (Chinese mining cartel + Blockstream, all controlled behind the curtain by the banksters) owns Bitcoin as it is scaled out.

China and others are looking to use BTC as a way to move capital out of the country into dollars, and TPTB created Bitcoin to entrap them ex post facto with the fully traceable public ledger and to simultaneously disrupt any national resistance to globalized digital currency. Thus any excuse they can use to pump up the price and dump on bag holders so as to provide more liquidity. Note the volume surge recently. If these large capital players have a macro economic contagion induced margin call, then BTC gets dumped. r0ach doesn't understand the importance of liquidity and how BTC has transitioned from 2013 P&D by the early miners to a capital controls evasion device.

Quote from: iamnotback on June 01, 2016, 06:59:01 AM

Quote from: iamnotback on June 01, 2016, 04:20:37 AM

...

But the permabull fails to note that BTC did not make lower lows after the initial waterfall crash in April 2013, yet during the current declining pattern since the $1200 peak, BTC continued to make lower lows.

...

In addition to the quoted point which is evident by studying the blue highlighted sections on the edited chart below, also notice historically on this chart Bitcoin must make a higher high than the highest high seen since the prior peak, before there is a confirmed breakout:

(readers need to click the link for the image because a newbie's images don't appear)

Those prior blue peaks before the $1200 one, were extremely deep crashes followed by immediate reaccumulation evident by the higher lows and higher highs, i.e. "oh shit the sky is falling selll!... oh shit, no it is not buy!". Whereas the $1200 peak was a gradually increasing capitulation as the permabulls gradually capitulate evident by the lower lows and lower highs. And that capitulation is not complete, evidence r0ach and the other religious, irrational permabulls have to lose their BTC wealth first before the bottom is in. When ever you see a tinfoil hat married to an asset, that is evidence of market froth. When an asset is universally hated or has level-headed investors, then it is ripe for under-the-radar accumulation.

Obviously Bitcoin is only in a deadcat bounce or in a long-winded, gradually rising U bottom, not on the verge of some immediately imminent vertical rocket upwards past the prior $1200 peak.

Looks like there is strong support for BTC historically in the $5 - 10 range. The other range of support is in the $50 - $150 range, which the range I am expecting for the ultimate bottom. But < $10 is not impossible.

Also notice the same chart pattern for gold, where support is in the $600 - $850 range after breaking through support in the $1000 - $1100 range:

Quote from: iamnotback on June 01, 2016, 09:29:49 AM

Quote from: r0ach on June 01, 2016, 07:26:10 AM

You also can't compare gold and Bitcoin because gold is a mature market who has already reached maximum market penetration.

The masses using Bitcoin is still a vaporware dream. Both gold and Bitcoin are used by the wealthy and stealthy to transfer large wealth covertly. They are both alternative assets for the wealthy, not for your average Joe Blow.

Quote from: r0ach on June 01, 2016, 07:26:10 AM

If the economy implodes and gold is actually spendable in it's native coin form, there will be no food on the shelves to buy with it anyway!

Refer to what I wrote in the prior post about a tinfoil hat (doom and extreme religion) permabull.

Quote from: iamnotback on June 01, 2016, 06:59:01 AM

Obviously Bitcoin is only in a deadcat bounce or in a long-winded, gradually rising U bottom, not on the verge of some immediately imminent vertical rocket upwards past the prior $1200 peak.

It is possible that Bitcoin has U bottomed at $150 and will meander up to $1200 over the next several months.

A rocket shot to $3000+ is not in the cards this year.

If we do meander up to $1200, a flag 33 - 67% decline pattern is likely before advancing further.

I do hope for the U bottom scenario, because it means much more liquidity for altcoin moonshots, than the alternative crash scenario.