Quote from: toothless on May 27, 2016, 06:51:52 AM

.....

Yes, I haven't found anyone yet among "the knowledgeable" who are willing to stick their necks out and issue a learned prediction on where things will stand in two months.

And then after that, I suppose that we'll all be watching to see what happens in Spring 2017 when the core group will be able to finally sell off their huge BTC holdings, if they so choose?

It looks like an interesting 12 months...

I think it's silly to expect folks to have definitive answers to your questions, when they largely involve human behavior. While all the math of crypto currencies is largely beyond me, there are several items surrounding Bitcoin that are completely driven by human behavior and expectations. The human element is most decidedly NON MATHEMATICAL in nature. For example:

- The price of BTC is a major contributor to everything that most folks do here. If the price rises, the supply increases, because folks are more willing to sell their BTC at $1000 than they are at $200. Don't just assume that BTC rewards are the primary "supply" of BTC. I have absolutely know idea what drives the demand for BTC. Right now I expect that demand is mostly a function of what folks expect for a future price.

- Some folks that are mining now, may well give up sometime after the halving because they can't afford to continue mining. That MIGHT drop the difficulty, though if they sell their equipment, nothing really changes.

- There is newer more efficient equipment likely to arrive within the next 60 days. That will shake things as well.

The lack of certainty you hear is that folks that are "knowledgeable" already understand this and are unwilling to give you an answer that is more than speculation. Anyone that is "certain" is fooling you (and themselves).