I agree with you on these points, but where exactly do you see "first sell off" in the first bubble? Or the "return to normal"? Imho, any point you pick for these are quite arbitrary.
Zoom in on the 2011 bubble. First selloff; mid/end may, Return to normal; mid june.
How are we in the bull trap/return to normal area if we haven't even had a significant sell-off in the new "bubble" ? Don't get me wrong, I think we will get another decent sell-off, and we have risen quite a bit, but I don't think we are there yet.
Jan 31 - Feb 2 was a pretty significant selloff, around 3 and a half dollars (setting the "denial" phase).
Pulling back, I think we may now be bordering on the "fear" stage. If my suspicions are correct, it will be an interesting couple of months....
*chart updates automatically